Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 06/09, 14:30

Prediction: Heerenveen vs AZ

Team pages: Heerenveen · AZ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Heerenveen1.45

AZ2.09

1X2

26% 23% 51%

Heerenveen Draw AZ

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Heerenveen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLWDLD

AZ 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDDDWWWW

Head-to-head

Heerenveen 2–1–3 AZ (6 last)

AZ3-0Heerenveen
Heerenveen3-1AZ
AZ4-1Heerenveen
Heerenveen3-1AZ
AZ9-1Heerenveen
Heerenveen2-2AZ

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heerenveen 1531 · AZ 1612

	Heerenveen	Draw	AZ
Our model	26%	23%	51%
Market	26%	23%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AZ (rating 1531 vs 1612).
H2H favours AZ: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heerenveen	AZ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	2.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.4	3.8 / 8.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	1.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.00

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.91 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.31
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:38 +2’	3.60	4.00	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:39 +1’	3.91	4.31	1.77

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heerenveen 2–1–3 AZ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	3-0 HT 2-0	Heerenveen
23/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	3-1 HT 2-0	AZ
22/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	4-1 HT 3-0	Heerenveen
02/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	3-1 HT 1-0	AZ
14/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	9-1 HT 2-1	Heerenveen
28/01/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	2-2 HT 1-1	AZ

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	4	4	0	0	13	3	12
2	PSV	4	3	1	0	15	5	10
3	Feyenoord	4	2	2	0	10	6	8
4	Ajax	3	2	1	0	8	2	7
5	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
6	Fortuna Sittard	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
7	NEC	3	2	0	1	8	4	6
8	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
9	FC Groningen	4	2	0	2	9	10	6
10	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	5	6	5
11	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	7	7	4
12	FC Twente	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
13	Telstar	3	1	0	2	3	8	3
14	PEC Zwolle	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
15	Willem II	3	0	1	2	4	10	1
16	ADO Den Haag	4	0	1	3	4	11	1
17	FC Utrecht	4	0	1	3	6	15	1
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	3	0	0	3	3	12	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heerenveen	AZ
FC Twente	1-0 W	2-2 D
FC Utrecht	2-3 L	4-1 W
NAC	0-2 L	3-3 D
Fortuna Sittard	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: AZ (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heerenveen

LWWLDLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
16/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
09/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-3	6	1	L
17/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
11/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
03/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
25/04	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
12/04	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-3	6	2	L

AZ

WWDDDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	5-2	8	0	W
22/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	15	2	W
15/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	9	6	W
08/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
17/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-3	7	2	D
10/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
03/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
23/04	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
12/04	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
04/04	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-0	10	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heerenveen vs AZ?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AZ win (51%). Probabilities: Heerenveen 26%, draw 23%, AZ 51%.

How many goals are expected in Heerenveen vs AZ?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Heerenveen 1.45 · AZ 2.09), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs AZ?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.