Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 05/09, 20:00
Prediction: Ajax vs PSV
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.9Total
Ajax1.93
PSV1.98
1X2
Ajax
Draw
PSV
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Ajax
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
PSV
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ajax
2–3–1
PSV
(6 last)
- Ajax2-2PSV
- PSV2-2Ajax
- PSV0-2Ajax
- Ajax3-2PSV
- Ajax1-1PSV
- PSV5-2Ajax
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ajax 1640 · PSV 1579
| Ajax | Draw | PSV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 23% | 40% |
| Market | 37% | 24% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (rating 1640 vs 1579).
- H2H favours Ajax: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ajax | PSV | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 3.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.4 | 3.1 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax 2–3–1 PSV
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 2-2 HT 1-1 | PSV |
| 21/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Ajax |
| 30/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ajax |
| 02/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 3-2 HT 1-1 | PSV |
| 03/02/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 1-1 HT 1-1 | PSV |
| 29/10/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 5-2 HT 1-2 | Ajax |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | PSV | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 6 | NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| 9 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | FC Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | FC Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ajax | PSV |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 2-0 W | 6-1 W |
| FC Utrecht | 0-0 D | 4-3 W |
| FC Groningen | 2-0 W | 5-1 W |
| FC Twente | 1-2 L | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: PSV (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ajax
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 21/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | NAC Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
PSV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/04 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 6-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/04 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/04 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 4-3 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 22/03 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-3 | 12 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ajax vs PSV?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PSV win (39%). Probabilities: Ajax 37%, draw 23%, PSV 39%.
How many goals are expected in Ajax vs PSV?
The model expects 3.9 goals (Ajax 1.93 · PSV 1.98), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs PSV?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.