Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 06/09, 12:15

Prediction: FC Groningen vs FC Twente

Team pages: FC Groningen · FC Twente

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

FC Groningen1.4

FC Twente1.85

1X2

28% 24% 47%

FC Groningen Draw FC Twente

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Groningen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Twente 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Groningen 0–3–3 FC Twente (6 last)

FC Twente2-1FC Groningen
FC Groningen1-1FC Twente
FC Groningen1-1FC Twente
FC Twente2-0FC Groningen
FC Groningen1-1FC Twente
FC Twente3-0FC Groningen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Groningen 1464 · FC Twente 1571

	FC Groningen	Draw	FC Twente
Our model	28%	25%	47%
Market	28%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (rating 1464 vs 1571).
H2H favours FC Twente: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Groningen	FC Twente
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2	2.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	3.3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.80

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.10 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +5’	3.25	3.80	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:37 +2’	3.24	3.77	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Groningen 0–3–3 FC Twente

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Groningen
02/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Twente
01/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Twente
15/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Groningen
05/02/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Twente
16/10/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Groningen

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	4	4	0	0	13	3	12
2	PSV	4	3	1	0	15	5	10
3	Feyenoord	4	2	2	0	10	6	8
4	Ajax	3	2	1	0	8	2	7
5	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
6	Fortuna Sittard	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
7	NEC	3	2	0	1	8	4	6
8	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
9	FC Groningen	4	2	0	2	9	10	6
10	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	5	6	5
11	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	7	7	4
12	FC Twente	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
13	Telstar	3	1	0	2	3	8	3
14	PEC Zwolle	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
15	Willem II	3	0	1	2	4	10	1
16	ADO Den Haag	4	0	1	3	4	11	1
17	FC Utrecht	4	0	1	3	6	15	1
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	3	0	0	3	3	12	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Groningen	FC Twente
Fortuna Sittard	2-3 L	2-1 W
PSV	1-5 L	1-5 L
Ajax	0-2 L	2-1 W
NEC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Twente (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Groningen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-3	7	7	L
23/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-3	1-5	4	2	L
16/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-1	2	1	W
09/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
21/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	0	5	L
17/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
10/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-3	5	0	L
25/04	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
11/04	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	8	0	D

FC Twente

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	4-1	9	2	W
16/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-1	6	0	W
09/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
17/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-5	9	2	L
10/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	4-0	9	2	W
03/05	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	3	0	D
25/04	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
10/04	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
04/04	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
21/03	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Groningen vs FC Twente?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Twente win (47%). Probabilities: FC Groningen 28%, draw 24%, FC Twente 47%.

How many goals are expected in FC Groningen vs FC Twente?

The model expects 3.24 goals (FC Groningen 1.4 · FC Twente 1.85), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs FC Twente?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.