Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 04/09, 20:00

Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle

Team pages: Sparta Rotterdam · PEC Zwolle

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
Sparta Rotterdam1.85
PEC Zwolle1.16
1X2
53% 24% 23%
Sparta Rotterdam Draw PEC Zwolle
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 65% Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Sparta Rotterdam 1-3-6 (W-D-L)
DLLDLLLWDL
PEC Zwolle 2-1-7 (W-D-L)
LDLWLLLLWL
Head-to-head
Sparta Rotterdam 1–2–3 PEC Zwolle (6 last)
  • Sparta Rotterdam1-1PEC Zwolle
  • PEC Zwolle1-0Sparta Rotterdam
  • Sparta Rotterdam1-1PEC Zwolle
  • PEC Zwolle1-0Sparta Rotterdam
  • Sparta Rotterdam0-2PEC Zwolle
  • PEC Zwolle1-2Sparta Rotterdam
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Rotterdam 1437 · PEC Zwolle 1437
Sparta RotterdamDrawPEC Zwolle
Our model52%25%23%
Market53%23%24%
Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours PEC Zwolle: 3-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Sparta RotterdamPEC Zwolle
Goals for / against (FT)1.2 / 2.21 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.60.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/40/40%10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)2.3 / 4.21.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.3 / 0.12.1 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Rotterdam 123 PEC Zwolle

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DateHomeScoreAway
08/03/26
Netherlands Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam1-1
HT 0-0
PEC Zwolle
08/11/25
Netherlands Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle1-0
HT 1-0
Sparta Rotterdam
15/03/25
Netherlands Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam1-1
HT 0-0
PEC Zwolle
30/11/24
Netherlands Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle1-0
HT 0-0
Sparta Rotterdam
04/02/24
Netherlands Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam0-2
HT 0-1
PEC Zwolle
12/08/23
Netherlands Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle1-2
HT 0-1
Sparta Rotterdam

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 AZ 4400 13312
2 PSV 3210 947
3 Feyenoord 3210 847
4 Go Ahead Eagles 4211 1197
5 Fortuna Sittard 4211 877
6 NEC 3201 846
7 Excelsior 3201 736
8 FC Groningen 4202 9106
9 Ajax 2110 424
10 Heerenveen 3111 344
11 Sparta Rotterdam 4112 774
12 FC Twente 2101 323
13 Telstar 2101 343
14 PEC Zwolle 4103 483
15 FC Utrecht 3012 591
16 Willem II 2002 280
17 ADO Den Haag 3003 290
18 Cambuur Leeuwarden 3003 3120

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentSparta RotterdamPEC Zwolle
Excelsior 1-2 L 2-2 D
Feyenoord 0-1 L 0-2 L
FC Twente 0-4 L 1-3 L
Go Ahead Eagles 2-2 D 0-5 L
PSV 0-2 L 1-6 L
Record vs common 0 W 1 D 4 L 0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Rotterdam (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Rotterdam

DLLDLLLWDL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
29/08 Excelsior
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-1 1-2 43 L
22/08 FC Utrecht
Netherlands Eredivisie
1-1 3-3 50 D
14/08 Telstar
Netherlands Eredivisie
1-0 3-1 52 W
09/08 Feyenoord
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-1 0-1 54 L
17/05 Excelsior
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-1 2-3 54 L
10/05 FC Twente
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-0 0-4 22 L
03/05 Go Ahead Eagles
Netherlands Eredivisie
1-0 2-2 66 D
22/04 Telstar
Netherlands Eredivisie
1-1 1-4 52 L
11/04 PSV
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-1 0-2 27 L
05/04 NAC
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-0 0-0 34 D

PEC Zwolle

LDLWLLLLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
29/08 NEC
Netherlands Eredivisie
1-2 1-3 64 L
22/08 Heerenveen
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-0 2-0 33 W
16/08 FC Twente
Netherlands Eredivisie
1-1 1-3 30 L
09/08 Ajax
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-0 0-2 25 L
17/05 Feyenoord
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-0 0-2 20 L
10/05 Fortuna Sittard
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-1 2-3 51 L
03/05 Heracles
Netherlands Eredivisie
1-0 1-0 36 W
23/04 PSV
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-1 1-6 42 L
12/04 Excelsior
Netherlands Eredivisie
1-1 2-2 51 D
05/04 Go Ahead Eagles
Netherlands Eredivisie
0-3 0-5 81 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Rotterdam win (53%). Probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 53%, draw 24%, PEC Zwolle 23%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 · PEC Zwolle 1.16), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.