Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 05/09, 16:30
Prediction: NEC vs Feyenoord
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.44Total
NEC1.57
Feyenoord1.86
1X2
NEC
Draw
Feyenoord
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
NEC
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Feyenoord
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NEC
1–3–2
Feyenoord
(6 last)
- NEC1-1Feyenoord
- Feyenoord2-4NEC
- Feyenoord0-0NEC
- NEC1-1Feyenoord
- NEC2-3Feyenoord
- Feyenoord1-0NEC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NEC 1499 · Feyenoord 1602
| NEC | Draw | Feyenoord | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Market | 32% | 24% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.44 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Feyenoord (rating 1499 vs 1602).
- H2H favours Feyenoord: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NEC | Feyenoord | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 7.4 | 3.1 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC 1–3–2 Feyenoord
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Feyenoord |
| 23/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Feyenoord | 2-4 HT 1-1 | NEC |
| 01/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Feyenoord | 0-0 HT 0-0 | NEC |
| 28/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Feyenoord |
| 12/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Feyenoord |
| 21/04/24 Netherlands Cup | Feyenoord | 1-0 HT 0-0 | NEC |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | PSV | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
| 6 | NEC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 |
| 9 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | FC Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
| 15 | FC Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NEC | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| FC Groningen | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NEC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 04/04 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 22/03 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
Feyenoord
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
4-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 05/04 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/03 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NEC vs Feyenoord?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Feyenoord win (44%). Probabilities: NEC 32%, draw 24%, Feyenoord 44%.
How many goals are expected in NEC vs Feyenoord?
The model expects 3.44 goals (NEC 1.57 · Feyenoord 1.86), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in NEC vs Feyenoord?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.