Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 16/10, 20:00

Prediction: Heerenveen vs Excelsior

Team pages: Heerenveen · Excelsior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Heerenveen2.04

Excelsior1.31

1X2

53% 23% 23%

Heerenveen Draw Excelsior

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Heerenveen 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLDLDWL

Excelsior 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWWDLD

Head-to-head

Heerenveen 3–1–2 Excelsior (6 last)

Excelsior1-2Heerenveen
Heerenveen2-1Excelsior
Excelsior3-0Heerenveen
Heerenveen0-3Excelsior
Heerenveen0-0Excelsior
Excelsior0-1Heerenveen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heerenveen 1508 · Excelsior 1551

	Heerenveen	Draw	Excelsior
Our model	53%	23%	23%
Market	53%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior (rating 1508 vs 1551).
H2H favours Heerenveen: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heerenveen	Excelsior
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.8	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:38 +7’	1.75	4.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Heerenveen 3–1–2 Excelsior

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	1-2 HT 0-1	Heerenveen
04/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	2-1 HT 0-1	Excelsior
19/01/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	3-0 HT 2-0	Heerenveen
23/09/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	0-3 HT 0-2	Excelsior
13/05/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	0-0 HT 0-0	Excelsior
22/12/22 Europe Friendlies	Excelsior	0-1 HT 0-0	Heerenveen

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	7	6	1	0	18	6	19
2	PSV	8	6	1	1	26	10	19
3	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	17
4	FC Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	11
8	FC Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	11
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	10
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11	11	9
11	NEC	7	2	2	3	12	13	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	5
14	Cambuur Leeuwarden	7	1	2	4	10	19	5
15	FC Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heerenveen	Excelsior
PSV	0-2 L	1-2 L
Sparta Rotterdam	4-0 W	2-1 W
Willem II	2-2 D	3-0 W
Ajax	2-2 D	2-2 D
FC Utrecht	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Excelsior (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heerenveen

DLWDLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
19/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
13/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
06/09	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
30/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
16/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-2	2	4	D
09/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
21/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-3	6	1	L
17/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D

Excelsior

WDWWLWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
13/09	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
08/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
05/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
29/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
15/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	1	1	L
07/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-0	8	0	W
17/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
02/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-2	8	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Heerenveen win (53%). Probabilities: Heerenveen 53%, draw 23%, Excelsior 23%.

How many goals are expected in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Heerenveen 2.04 · Excelsior 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.