Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 18/10, 20:00
Prediction: NEC vs Fortuna Sittard
Team pages: NEC · Fortuna Sittard
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.53Total
NEC2.17
Fortuna Sittard1.36
1X2
NEC
Draw
Fortuna Sittard
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
NEC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Fortuna Sittard
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NEC
3–1–2
Fortuna Sittard
(6 last)
- NEC2-3Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard3-2NEC
- NEC4-1Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard0-3NEC
- Fortuna Sittard1-1NEC
- NEC4-1Fortuna Sittard
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NEC 1447 · Fortuna Sittard 1541
| NEC | Draw | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Sittard (rating 1447 vs 1541).
- H2H favours NEC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NEC | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.7 | 1.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.8 | 1 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NEC 3–1–2 Fortuna Sittard
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Fortuna Sittard |
| 31/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 3-2 HT 2-1 | NEC |
| 19/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 4-1 HT 1-1 | Fortuna Sittard |
| 31/08/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 0-3 HT 0-2 | NEC |
| 02/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 1-1 HT 0-0 | NEC |
| 15/12/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Fortuna Sittard |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | PSV | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 19 | 17 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 22 | 9 |
| 13 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 8 |
| 14 | FC Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
| 15 | Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 6 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 6 |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 4 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NEC | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Cambuur Leeuwarden | 0-3 L | 3-1 W |
| PEC Zwolle | 3-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Willem II | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Groningen | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: NEC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NEC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 08/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
Fortuna Sittard
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 19/09 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NEC win (55%). Probabilities: NEC 55%, draw 23%, Fortuna Sittard 22%.
How many goals are expected in NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
The model expects 3.53 goals (NEC 2.17 · Fortuna Sittard 1.36), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in NEC vs Fortuna Sittard?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.