Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 18/10, 12:15

Prediction: PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles

Team pages: PEC Zwolle · Go Ahead Eagles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.83Total

PEC Zwolle1.72

Go Ahead Eagles2.11

1X2

31% 24% 46%

PEC Zwolle Draw Go Ahead Eagles

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

PEC Zwolle 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLDLLL

Go Ahead Eagles 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLDDDD

Head-to-head

PEC Zwolle 0–4–2 Go Ahead Eagles (6 last)

Go Ahead Eagles5-0PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle0-2Go Ahead Eagles
PEC Zwolle1-1Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles2-2PEC Zwolle
Go Ahead Eagles1-1PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle1-1Go Ahead Eagles

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PEC Zwolle 1385 · Go Ahead Eagles 1521

	PEC Zwolle	Draw	Go Ahead Eagles
Our model	31%	22%	46%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.83 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Go Ahead Eagles (rating 1385 vs 1521).
H2H favours Go Ahead Eagles: 2-4-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PEC Zwolle	Go Ahead Eagles
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.6	2.1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	2 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	1.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.80

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.43 ★
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	2.00 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.06

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +4’	3.10	3.90	2.00
04:04 +7’	3.10	3.80▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:37 +166’	3.43	3.65	2.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PEC Zwolle 0–4–2 Go Ahead Eagles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	5-0 HT 3-0	PEC Zwolle
21/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	0-2 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
11/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	1-1 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
03/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	2-2 HT 0-2	PEC Zwolle
11/02/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	1-1 HT 0-0	PEC Zwolle
17/09/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	1-1 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	8	6	2	0	27	7	20
2	PSV	8	6	1	1	26	10	19
3	AZ	8	6	1	1	18	8	19
4	FC Twente	8	5	2	1	16	8	17
5	Ajax	8	4	3	1	22	10	15
6	FC Groningen	8	4	2	2	20	14	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	4	2	2	14	15	14
8	Go Ahead Eagles	8	2	5	1	19	17	11
9	Excelsior	8	3	2	3	16	14	11
10	Heerenveen	8	2	3	3	11	11	9
11	NEC	8	2	3	3	13	14	9
12	Cambuur Leeuwarden	8	2	2	4	11	19	8
13	FC Utrecht	8	2	2	4	14	25	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	13	20	6
15	Telstar	8	1	3	4	7	14	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	1	1	6	6	21	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	0	3	5	9	19	3
18	Willem II	8	0	2	6	7	23	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PEC Zwolle	Go Ahead Eagles
FC Groningen	0-3 L	1-1 D
Feyenoord	0-7 L	2-2 D
Sparta Rotterdam	2-2 D	3-3 D
NEC	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Go Ahead Eagles (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PEC Zwolle

LLLLWLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
13/09	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-3	0-7	5	0	L
04/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
22/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
16/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
17/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
10/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-3	5	1	L

Go Ahead Eagles

LLWDWLDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	3-3	9	3	D
20/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
12/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
08/09	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-3	5	3	D
29/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-5	4	0	L
23/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
16/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-2	6	0	D
08/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	3	W
17/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
10/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	8	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Go Ahead Eagles win (46%). Probabilities: PEC Zwolle 31%, draw 24%, Go Ahead Eagles 46%.

How many goals are expected in PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model expects 3.83 goals (PEC Zwolle 1.72 · Go Ahead Eagles 2.11), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.