Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 01/11, 16:45
Prediction: FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Team pages: FC Groningen · Sparta Rotterdam
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.02Total
FC Groningen2.45
Sparta Rotterdam1.58
1X2
FC Groningen
Draw
Sparta Rotterdam
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
2-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Groningen
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Sparta Rotterdam
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Groningen
1–5
Sparta Rotterdam
(6 last)
- Sparta Rotterdam2-0FC Groningen
- Sparta Rotterdam5-2FC Groningen
- FC Groningen0-2Sparta Rotterdam
- Sparta Rotterdam1-0FC Groningen
- FC Groningen1-0Sparta Rotterdam
- FC Groningen0-5Sparta Rotterdam
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Groningen 1498 · Sparta Rotterdam 1475
| FC Groningen | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sparta Rotterdam: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 2.1 | 1.7 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.6 | 2.5 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Groningen 1–0–5 Sparta Rotterdam
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Groningen |
| 30/10/25 Netherlands Cup | Sparta Rotterdam | 5-2 HT 1-2 | FC Groningen |
| 19/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 02/02/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Sparta Rotterdam | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Groningen |
| 09/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 28/05/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 0-5 HT 0-1 | Sparta Rotterdam |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 15 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 2-5 L | 1-2 L |
| Excelsior | 5-1 W | 1-2 L |
| PEC Zwolle | 3-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 1-1 D | 3-3 D |
| PSV | 1-5 L | 1-4 L |
| FC Utrecht | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Groningen (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Groningen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 2-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 11/10 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 28/08 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
Sparta Rotterdam
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 17/10 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 10/10 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 19/09 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 04/09 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 15 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 14/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Groningen win (55%). Probabilities: FC Groningen 55%, draw 22%, Sparta Rotterdam 23%.
How many goals are expected in FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model expects 4.02 goals (FC Groningen 2.45 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.58), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.