Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 01/11, 12:15

Prediction: PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Team pages: PEC Zwolle · ADO Den Haag

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

PEC Zwolle1.66

ADO Den Haag1.45

1X2

42% 26% 33%

PEC Zwolle Draw ADO Den Haag

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

PEC Zwolle 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLDLLLWD

ADO Den Haag 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLDDWL

Head-to-head

PEC Zwolle 2–4 ADO Den Haag (6 last)

ADO Den Haag3-0PEC Zwolle
ADO Den Haag3-1PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle1-2ADO Den Haag
PEC Zwolle0-1ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag0-2PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle3-1ADO Den Haag

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PEC Zwolle 1435 · ADO Den Haag 1444

	PEC Zwolle	Draw	ADO Den Haag
Our model	42%	26%	33%
Market	42%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours ADO Den Haag: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PEC Zwolle	ADO Den Haag
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.70
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.99 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +12’	2.25	3.60	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:16 +722’	2.21	3.74	3.02
14:27	2.24▲	3.70▼	2.99▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PEC Zwolle 2–0–4 ADO Den Haag

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/25 Europe Friendlies	ADO Den Haag	3-0 HT 1-0	PEC Zwolle
17/02/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	ADO Den Haag	3-1 HT 2-1	PEC Zwolle
16/09/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	PEC Zwolle	1-2 HT 1-1	ADO Den Haag
09/05/21 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	0-1 HT 0-1	ADO Den Haag
23/12/20 Netherlands Eredivisie	ADO Den Haag	0-2 HT 0-0	PEC Zwolle
20/10/19 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	3-1 HT 1-1	ADO Den Haag

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	10	7	3	0	32	11	24
2	Ajax	10	6	3	1	29	13	21
3	PSV	10	6	2	2	28	13	20
4	FC Twente	10	6	2	2	19	10	20
5	AZ	10	6	2	2	20	12	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	10	5	3	2	17	17	18
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	18	13	15
8	FC Groningen	10	4	3	3	24	21	15
9	Go Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	23	23	14
10	Cambuur Leeuwarden	10	3	3	4	19	22	12
11	FC Utrecht	10	3	3	4	17	27	12
12	NEC	10	2	5	3	17	18	11
13	Excelsior	10	3	2	5	16	19	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	17	24	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	11	23	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	12	21	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	13	23	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	10	32	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PEC Zwolle	ADO Den Haag
Go Ahead Eagles	4-1 W	1-3 L
Cambuur Leeuwarden	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Groningen	0-3 L	1-4 L
Feyenoord	0-7 L	2-2 D
Heerenveen	2-0 W	2-3 L
FC Twente	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PEC Zwolle

LLWLDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
18/10	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	4-1	5	0	W
11/10	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
18/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
13/09	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-3	0-7	5	0	L
04/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
22/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
16/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	5	L

ADO Den Haag

LLLDLLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-3	8	1	L
17/10	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	0	4	D
19/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
12/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
06/09	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-3	2	4	L
30/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
23/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
16/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-3	1-4	5	1	L
08/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PEC Zwolle win (42%). Probabilities: PEC Zwolle 42%, draw 26%, ADO Den Haag 33%.

How many goals are expected in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?

The model expects 3.11 goals (PEC Zwolle 1.66 · ADO Den Haag 1.45), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.