Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 01/11, 14:30

Prediction: Telstar vs FC Utrecht

Team pages: Telstar · FC Utrecht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Telstar1.64

FC Utrecht1.8

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Telstar Draw FC Utrecht

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Telstar 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Telstar 0–1–1 FC Utrecht (2 last)

FC Utrecht4-1Telstar
Telstar1-1FC Utrecht

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Telstar 1415 · FC Utrecht 1502

	Telstar	Draw	FC Utrecht
Our model	35%	24%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Utrecht (rating 1415 vs 1502).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Telstar	FC Utrecht
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.7 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.70

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.90 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:04 +15’	2.75	3.70	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:10 +129’	2.87	3.61	2.36
09:52 +22’	2.84▼	3.70▲	2.34▼
12:16 +1’	2.90▲	3.68▼	2.31▼
17:13 +13’	2.90	3.70▲	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Telstar 0–1–1 FC Utrecht

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	4-1 HT 1-0	Telstar
23/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Telstar	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	10	7	3	0	32	11	24
2	Ajax	10	6	3	1	29	13	21
3	PSV	10	6	2	2	28	13	20
4	FC Twente	10	6	2	2	19	10	20
5	AZ	10	6	2	2	20	12	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	10	5	3	2	17	17	18
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	18	13	15
8	FC Groningen	10	4	3	3	24	21	15
9	Go Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	23	23	14
10	Cambuur Leeuwarden	10	3	3	4	19	22	12
11	FC Utrecht	10	3	3	4	17	27	12
12	NEC	10	2	5	3	17	18	11
13	Excelsior	10	3	2	5	16	19	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	17	24	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	11	23	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	12	21	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	13	23	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	10	32	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Telstar	FC Utrecht
Go Ahead Eagles	2-3 L	3-3 D
Feyenoord	3-4 L	0-5 L
AZ	0-1 L	1-4 L
FC Twente	0-1 L	2-1 W
Sparta Rotterdam	1-3 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Utrecht (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Telstar

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-3	2	2	L
17/10	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	2-3	3-4	6	5	L
11/10	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
20/09	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
13/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
09/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
30/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-4	5	0	L
14/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-3	7	2	L
08/08	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-1	3	4	W

FC Utrecht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
18/10	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/10	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-1	7	2	W
20/09	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-3	0-5	3	4	L
13/09	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
08/09	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	3-3	7	3	D
30/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-6	0	6	L
22/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-3	7	0	D
15/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-4	3	6	L
09/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Telstar vs FC Utrecht?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Utrecht win (41%). Probabilities: Telstar 34%, draw 25%, FC Utrecht 41%.

How many goals are expected in Telstar vs FC Utrecht?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Telstar 1.64 · FC Utrecht 1.8), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Telstar vs FC Utrecht?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.