Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 31/10, 21:00

Prediction: Ajax vs AZ

Team pages: Ajax · AZ

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Ajax2.22

AZ1.46

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Ajax Draw AZ

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Ajax 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWDDWW

AZ 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWLDL

Head-to-head

Ajax 0–2–4 AZ (6 last)

AZ1-1Ajax
AZ6-0Ajax
Ajax0-2AZ
Ajax2-2AZ
AZ2-0Ajax
AZ2-1Ajax

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ajax 1578 · AZ 1565

	Ajax	Draw	AZ
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AZ: 4-2-0.
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ajax	AZ
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.3	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.7	3 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.20

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.73▼	Pinn 1.76
X	4.00 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.36 ★
2	3.50 → 3.90▲	Pinn 3.95

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:40 +6’	1.85	4.00	3.50
12:14 +1’	1.73▼	4.20▲	3.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:11 +12’	1.87	4.10	3.52
21:13 +8’	1.88▲	4.15▲	3.57▲
21:59 +19’	1.85▼	4.19▲	3.63▲
23:39 +37’	1.84▼	4.21▲	3.67▲
11:52 +23’	1.76▼	4.33▲	3.91▲
15:25 +3’	1.76▼	4.34▲	3.93▲
22:15 +28’	1.76▲	4.36▲	3.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax 0–2–4 AZ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	1-1 HT 0-0	Ajax
14/01/26 Netherlands Cup	AZ	6-0 HT 3-0	Ajax
18/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	0-2 HT 0-2	AZ
16/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	2-2 HT 0-0	AZ
14/01/25 Netherlands Cup	AZ	2-0 HT 1-0	Ajax
08/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	2-1 HT 0-0	Ajax

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	10	7	3	0	32	11	24
2	Ajax	10	6	3	1	29	13	21
3	PSV	10	6	2	2	28	13	20
4	FC Twente	10	6	2	2	19	10	20
5	AZ	10	6	2	2	20	12	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	10	5	3	2	17	17	18
7	Heerenveen	10	4	3	3	18	13	15
8	FC Groningen	10	4	3	3	24	21	15
9	Go Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	23	23	14
10	Cambuur Leeuwarden	10	3	3	4	19	22	12
11	FC Utrecht	10	3	3	4	17	27	12
12	NEC	10	2	5	3	17	18	11
13	Excelsior	10	3	2	5	16	19	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	17	24	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	11	23	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	12	21	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	13	23	6
18	Willem II	10	0	2	8	10	32	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ajax	AZ
Willem II	5-1 W	1-1 D
Fortuna Sittard	5-1 W	2-0 W
Telstar	4-0 W	1-0 W
Heerenveen	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ajax (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ajax

WDWLWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
18/10	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-2	4	2	W
10/10	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
15/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-1	14	0	W
12/09	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	5-1	11	6	W
05/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	1	6	L
30/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-0	4	0	W
16/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
09/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	10	5	W

AZ

WWWWWDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
18/10	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
10/10	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
20/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
06/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	3-2	3	3	W
29/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	5-2	8	0	W
22/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	15	2	W
15/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	9	6	W
08/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ajax vs AZ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ajax win (54%). Probabilities: Ajax 54%, draw 22%, AZ 24%.

How many goals are expected in Ajax vs AZ?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Ajax 2.22 · AZ 1.46), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ajax vs AZ?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.