Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 01/11, 14:30
Prediction: Excelsior vs FC Twente
Team pages: Excelsior · FC Twente
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.12Total
Excelsior1.07
FC Twente2.04
1X2
Excelsior
Draw
FC Twente
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Excelsior
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
FC Twente
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Excelsior
1–2–3
FC Twente
(6 last)
- FC Twente0-0Excelsior
- Excelsior1-0FC Twente
- Excelsior0-3FC Twente
- FC Twente4-2Excelsior
- Excelsior0-0FC Twente
- FC Twente4-0Excelsior
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Excelsior 1471 · FC Twente 1585
| Excelsior | Draw | FC Twente | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| Market | 19% | 23% | 59% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (rating 1471 vs 1585).
- H2H favours FC Twente: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Excelsior | FC Twente | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.9 | 1.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 3.5 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Excelsior 1–2–3 FC Twente
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Twente | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Excelsior |
| 30/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Twente |
| 10/02/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-3 HT 0-3 | FC Twente |
| 08/12/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Twente | 4-2 HT 1-2 | Excelsior |
| 01/04/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Twente |
| 31/08/22 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Twente | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Excelsior |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 15 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Excelsior | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Heerenveen | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Groningen | 1-5 L | 2-2 D |
| FC Utrecht | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| PSV | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Cambuur Leeuwarden | 4-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Twente (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Excelsior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 16/10 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 11/10 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/09 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 07/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
FC Twente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 09/09 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 09/08 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Excelsior vs FC Twente?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Twente win (59%). Probabilities: Excelsior 18%, draw 23%, FC Twente 59%.
How many goals are expected in Excelsior vs FC Twente?
The model expects 3.12 goals (Excelsior 1.07 · FC Twente 2.04), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs FC Twente?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.