Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 31/10, 16:30
Prediction: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard
Team pages: Feyenoord · Fortuna Sittard
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.72Total
Feyenoord2.86
Fortuna Sittard0.86
1X2
Feyenoord
Draw
Fortuna Sittard
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Feyenoord
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Fortuna Sittard
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Feyenoord
4–2–0
Fortuna Sittard
(6 last)
- Fortuna Sittard1-2Feyenoord
- Feyenoord2-0Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard0-2Feyenoord
- Feyenoord1-1Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard0-1Feyenoord
- Feyenoord0-0Fortuna Sittard
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Feyenoord 1593 · Fortuna Sittard 1528
| Feyenoord | Draw | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 81% | 12% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Feyenoord (rating 1593 vs 1528).
- H2H favours Feyenoord: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.1 | 1.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.3 | 0.7 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Feyenoord 4–2–0 Fortuna Sittard
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Feyenoord |
| 17/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Feyenoord | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fortuna Sittard |
| 12/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Feyenoord |
| 30/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Feyenoord | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Fortuna Sittard |
| 14/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Feyenoord |
| 13/08/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Feyenoord | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Fortuna Sittard |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 15 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Feyenoord | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| PSV | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| AZ | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| NEC | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| ADO Den Haag | 2-2 D | 3-2 W |
| Cambuur Leeuwarden | 5-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Feyenoord (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Feyenoord
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 17/10 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-2 | 4-3 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 7-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 05/09 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
4-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
Fortuna Sittard
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 19/09 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-5 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-2 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 28/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 22/08 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Feyenoord win (79%). Probabilities: Feyenoord 79%, draw 13%, Fortuna Sittard 7%.
How many goals are expected in Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
The model expects 3.72 goals (Feyenoord 2.86 · Fortuna Sittard 0.86), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.