Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 08/11, 16:45
Prediction: AZ vs FC Groningen
Team pages: AZ · FC Groningen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.6Total
AZ2.44
FC Groningen1.15
1X2
AZ
Draw
FC Groningen
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
AZ
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
FC Groningen
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AZ
4–1–1
FC Groningen
(6 last)
- FC Groningen3-0AZ
- AZ4-1FC Groningen
- AZ3-0FC Groningen
- AZ3-1FC Groningen
- FC Groningen0-0AZ
- AZ1-0FC Groningen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AZ 1521 · FC Groningen 1477
| AZ | Draw | FC Groningen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 20% | 16% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AZ (rating 1521 vs 1477).
- H2H favours AZ: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AZ | FC Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 2.4 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 7.4 | 2.1 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ 4–1–1 FC Groningen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 3-0 HT 1-0 | AZ |
| 10/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | AZ | 4-1 HT 3-1 | FC Groningen |
| 11/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | AZ | 3-0 HT 2-0 | FC Groningen |
| 18/12/24 Netherlands Cup | AZ | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Groningen |
| 25/08/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Groningen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | AZ |
| 11/03/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | AZ | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Groningen |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | PSV | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 18 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | 17 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 24 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 15 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 31 | 12 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | 12 |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 12 |
| 14 | NEC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 11 |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 11 |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 10 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | 9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | 3 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AZ | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 0-1 L | 2-5 L |
| FC Twente | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 5-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Fortuna Sittard | 2-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: AZ (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AZ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 25/10 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 18/10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/09 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 5-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 22/08 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 15 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 6 | W |
FC Groningen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 2-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 11/10 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 28/08 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AZ vs FC Groningen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AZ win (65%). Probabilities: AZ 65%, draw 20%, FC Groningen 15%.
How many goals are expected in AZ vs FC Groningen?
The model expects 3.6 goals (AZ 2.44 · FC Groningen 1.15), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in AZ vs FC Groningen?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.