Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 08/11, 12:15

Prediction: Heerenveen vs Feyenoord

Team pages: Heerenveen · Feyenoord

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Heerenveen1.44

Feyenoord2.28

1X2

23% 22% 55%

Heerenveen Draw Feyenoord

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Heerenveen 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWLWWW

Feyenoord 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWWDD

Head-to-head

Heerenveen 2–1–3 Feyenoord (6 last)

Heerenveen2-2Feyenoord
Feyenoord2-3Heerenveen
Feyenoord1-0Heerenveen
Heerenveen2-0Feyenoord
Feyenoord3-0Heerenveen
Heerenveen2-3Feyenoord

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heerenveen 1546 · Feyenoord 1567

	Heerenveen	Draw	Feyenoord
Our model	23%	21%	56%
Market	22%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Feyenoord: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heerenveen	Feyenoord
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	3.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.9	3.2 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.10

X4.10

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.23
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.40 ★
2	1.70 → 1.67▼	Pinn 1.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:03 +17’	4.00	4.20	1.70
01:11 +3’	4.10▲	4.10▼	1.67▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +3’	4.23	4.40	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Heerenveen 2–1–3 Feyenoord

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	2-2 HT 1-2	Feyenoord
17/12/25 Netherlands Cup	Feyenoord	2-3 HT 0-1	Heerenveen
13/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	1-0 HT 1-0	Heerenveen
18/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	2-0 HT 2-0	Feyenoord
23/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Feyenoord	3-0 HT 2-0	Heerenveen
17/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	2-3 HT 1-1	Feyenoord

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	33	12	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	30	13	24
3	PSV	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
4	FC Twente	11	7	2	2	28	10	23
5	AZ	11	6	2	3	20	13	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	11	5	4	2	18	18	19
7	Heerenveen	11	5	3	3	19	13	18
8	FC Groningen	11	4	3	4	26	24	15
9	Cambuur Leeuwarden	11	4	3	4	23	22	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	5	3	23	27	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	20	26	12
12	FC Utrecht	11	3	3	5	19	31	12
13	NEC	11	2	5	4	17	19	11
14	PEC Zwolle	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
15	Excelsior	11	3	2	6	16	28	11
16	Telstar	11	2	3	6	16	23	9
17	ADO Den Haag	11	1	3	7	13	24	6
18	Willem II	11	0	2	9	10	39	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heerenveen	Feyenoord
NEC	1-0 W	3-1 W
ADO Den Haag	3-2 W	2-2 D
PSV	0-2 L	1-1 D
Telstar	0-0 D	4-3 W
AZ	2-3 L	2-0 W
PEC Zwolle	0-2 L	7-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Feyenoord (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heerenveen

DLDLDWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
24/10	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	2	1	W
16/10	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-0	4	1	W
09/10	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
19/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
13/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
06/09	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-3	4	3	L
30/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
16/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-2	2	4	D

Feyenoord

DWDWWWWWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
25/10	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
17/10	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	3-2	4-3	8	5	W
10/10	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	7	4	W
20/09	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	5-0	6	4	W
13/09	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	7-0	6	0	W
05/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-1	1	3	W
30/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	11	3	D
23/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	4-0	5-2	3	1	W
16/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-2	6	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Feyenoord win (55%). Probabilities: Heerenveen 23%, draw 22%, Feyenoord 55%.

How many goals are expected in Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Heerenveen 1.44 · Feyenoord 2.28), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Feyenoord?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.