Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 07/11, 21:00

Prediction: Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles

Team pages: Excelsior · Go Ahead Eagles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.73Total

Excelsior1.77

Go Ahead Eagles1.96

1X2

34% 24% 42%

Excelsior Draw Go Ahead Eagles

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Excelsior 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Go Ahead Eagles 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDDDLW

Head-to-head

Excelsior 1–1–4 Go Ahead Eagles (6 last)

Excelsior0-1Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles2-0Excelsior
Go Ahead Eagles3-0Excelsior
Excelsior1-1Go Ahead Eagles
Excelsior2-1Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles3-1Excelsior

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Excelsior 1450 · Go Ahead Eagles 1519

	Excelsior	Draw	Go Ahead Eagles
Our model	35%	23%	42%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Go Ahead Eagles (rating 1450 vs 1519).
H2H favours Go Ahead Eagles: 4-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Excelsior	Go Ahead Eagles
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.8	2.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3	1.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.70

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.43 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:18 +13’	2.75	3.70	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +26’	2.75	3.67	2.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Excelsior 1–1–4 Go Ahead Eagles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	0-1 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
26/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	2-0 HT 0-0	Excelsior
30/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	3-0 HT 1-0	Excelsior
16/12/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	1-1 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
14/04/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	2-1 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
29/10/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	3-1 HT 2-0	Excelsior

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	33	12	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	30	13	24
3	PSV	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
4	FC Twente	11	7	2	2	28	10	23
5	AZ	11	6	2	3	20	13	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	11	5	4	2	18	18	19
7	Heerenveen	11	5	3	3	19	13	18
8	FC Groningen	11	4	3	4	26	24	15
9	Cambuur Leeuwarden	11	4	3	4	23	22	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	5	3	23	27	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	20	26	12
12	FC Utrecht	11	3	3	5	19	31	12
13	NEC	11	2	5	4	17	19	11
14	PEC Zwolle	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
15	Excelsior	11	3	2	6	16	28	11
16	Telstar	11	2	3	6	16	23	9
17	ADO Den Haag	11	1	3	7	13	24	6
18	Willem II	11	0	2	9	10	39	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Excelsior	Go Ahead Eagles
FC Groningen	1-5 L	1-1 D
FC Utrecht	1-2 L	3-3 D
NEC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Willem II	3-0 W	4-1 W
Sparta Rotterdam	2-1 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Go Ahead Eagles (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Excelsior

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-5	0-9	0	3	L
25/10	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
16/10	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-4	1	1	L
11/10	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-5	3	2	L
19/09	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
13/09	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
08/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
05/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
29/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
15/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	1	1	L

Go Ahead Eagles

WDWLDDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
18/10	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-4	6	0	L
10/10	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	3-3	9	3	D
20/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
12/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
08/09	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-3	5	3	D
29/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-5	4	0	L
23/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
16/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-2	6	0	D
08/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Go Ahead Eagles win (42%). Probabilities: Excelsior 34%, draw 24%, Go Ahead Eagles 42%.

How many goals are expected in Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model expects 3.73 goals (Excelsior 1.77 · Go Ahead Eagles 1.96), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.