Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 08/11, 14:30

Prediction: FC Twente vs Ajax

Team pages: FC Twente · Ajax

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

FC Twente1.85

Ajax1.63

1X2

42% 24% 33%

FC Twente Draw Ajax

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Twente 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDLWW

Ajax 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDDWWW

Head-to-head

FC Twente 2–1–3 Ajax (6 last)

Ajax1-2FC Twente
FC Twente2-3Ajax
Ajax2-0FC Twente
FC Twente2-2Ajax
Ajax2-1FC Twente
FC Twente3-1Ajax

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Twente 1619 · Ajax 1567

	FC Twente	Draw	Ajax
Our model	42%	24%	33%
Market	42%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (rating 1619 vs 1567).
H2H favours Ajax: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Twente	Ajax
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.9	2.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.80

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.25
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Pinn 3.86
2	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 2.91 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +2’	2.15	3.90	2.80
22:59 +18’	2.20▲	3.80▼	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +3’	2.28	3.92	2.83
09:56 +15’	2.29▲	3.84▼	2.85▲
11:55 +22’	2.25▼	3.86▲	2.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Twente 2–1–3 Ajax

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Twente
26/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	2-3 HT 1-0	Ajax
18/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Twente
10/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	2-2 HT 1-0	Ajax
14/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Ajax	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Twente
17/09/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	3-1 HT 2-1	Ajax

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	33	12	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	30	13	24
3	PSV	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
4	FC Twente	11	7	2	2	28	10	23
5	AZ	11	6	2	3	20	13	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	11	5	4	2	18	18	19
7	Heerenveen	11	5	3	3	19	13	18
8	FC Groningen	11	4	3	4	26	24	15
9	Cambuur Leeuwarden	11	4	3	4	23	22	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	5	3	23	27	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	20	26	12
12	FC Utrecht	11	3	3	5	19	31	12
13	NEC	11	2	5	4	17	19	11
14	PEC Zwolle	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
15	Excelsior	11	3	2	6	16	28	11
16	Telstar	11	2	3	6	16	23	9
17	ADO Den Haag	11	1	3	7	13	24	6
18	Willem II	11	0	2	9	10	39	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Twente	Ajax
Excelsior	9-0 W	2-2 D
AZ	2-0 W	1-0 W
Fortuna Sittard	1-1 D	5-1 W
PSV	3-2 W	1-3 L
Telstar	1-0 W	4-0 W
FC Groningen	2-2 D	5-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Twente

WWDWWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	5-0	9-0	8	3	W
25/10	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
18/10	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
10/10	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	7	1	D
20/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
12/09	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	12	4	W
09/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
06/09	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	2	2	D
30/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	4-1	9	2	W
16/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-1	6	0	W

Ajax

DWLWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	1	3	W
25/10	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
18/10	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-2	4	2	W
10/10	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/09	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
15/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-1	14	0	W
12/09	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	5-1	11	6	W
05/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	1	6	L
30/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-0	4	0	W
16/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-2	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Twente vs Ajax?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Twente win (42%). Probabilities: FC Twente 42%, draw 24%, Ajax 33%.

How many goals are expected in FC Twente vs Ajax?

The model expects 3.48 goals (FC Twente 1.85 · Ajax 1.63), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Twente vs Ajax?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.