Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 08/11, 16:45

Prediction: Cambuur Leeuwarden vs PSV

Team pages: Cambuur Leeuwarden · PSV

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

Cambuur Leeuwarden1.18

PSV2.71

1X2

13% 18% 69%

Cambuur Leeuwarden Draw PSV

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Cambuur Leeuwarden 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDWDWW

PSV 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWLDW

Head-to-head

Cambuur Leeuwarden 1–5 PSV (6 last)

PSV5-2Cambuur Leeuwarden
Cambuur Leeuwarden3-0PSV
Cambuur Leeuwarden1-2PSV
PSV4-1Cambuur Leeuwarden
PSV6-2Cambuur Leeuwarden
PSV3-2Cambuur Leeuwarden

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cambuur Leeuwarden 1536 · PSV 1571

	Cambuur Leeuwarden	Draw	PSV
Our model	14%	17%	69%
Market	13%	18%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours PSV: 5-0-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cambuur Leeuwarden	PSV
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.8	3.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	3.1 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.25

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.93

2 (-1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.88 ★
2	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +4’	7.00	5.25	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:02 +24’	6.31	5.88	1.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cambuur Leeuwarden 1–0–5 PSV

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/03/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	5-2 HT 1-1	Cambuur Leeuwarden
01/10/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	Cambuur Leeuwarden	3-0 HT 0-0	PSV
23/04/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	Cambuur Leeuwarden	1-2 HT 1-1	PSV
21/08/21 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	4-1 HT 2-0	Cambuur Leeuwarden
01/05/16 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	6-2 HT 3-2	Cambuur Leeuwarden
22/09/15 Netherlands Cup	PSV	3-2 HT 2-0	Cambuur Leeuwarden

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	33	12	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	30	13	24
3	PSV	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
4	FC Twente	11	7	2	2	28	10	23
5	AZ	11	6	2	3	20	13	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	11	5	4	2	18	18	19
7	Heerenveen	11	5	3	3	19	13	18
8	FC Groningen	11	4	3	4	26	24	15
9	Cambuur Leeuwarden	11	4	3	4	23	22	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	5	3	23	27	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	20	26	12
12	FC Utrecht	11	3	3	5	19	31	12
13	NEC	11	2	5	4	17	19	11
14	PEC Zwolle	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
15	Excelsior	11	3	2	6	16	28	11
16	Telstar	11	2	3	6	16	23	9
17	ADO Den Haag	11	1	3	7	13	24	6
18	Willem II	11	0	2	9	10	39	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cambuur Leeuwarden	PSV
Willem II	6-1 W	7-0 W
ADO Den Haag	1-1 D	1-2 L
FC Twente	1-4 L	2-3 L
Feyenoord	2-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: PSV (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cambuur Leeuwarden

LLLDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
24/10	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	6-1	4	2	W
18/10	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
11/10	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
19/09	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
12/09	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-0	4	6	W
06/09	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	2	8	D
30/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
23/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-4	2-5	3	1	L
15/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	7	2	L

PSV

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	7-0	11	2	W
25/10	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
17/10	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
09/10	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
20/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
13/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	4-1	9	2	W
05/09	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-1	1	6	W
30/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	6-1	13	6	W
23/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	3-1	5-1	9	2	W
15/08	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cambuur Leeuwarden vs PSV?

According to our model, the most likely result is an PSV win (69%). Probabilities: Cambuur Leeuwarden 13%, draw 18%, PSV 69%.

How many goals are expected in Cambuur Leeuwarden vs PSV?

The model expects 3.9 goals (Cambuur Leeuwarden 1.18 · PSV 2.71), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cambuur Leeuwarden vs PSV?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.