Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 31/10, 18:45
Prediction: PSV vs Willem II
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.46Total
PSV3.23
Willem II1.23
1X2
PSV
Draw
Willem II
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
PSV
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Willem II
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
PSV
4–1–1
Willem II
(6 last)
- PSV1-1Willem II
- Willem II0-2PSV
- PSV4-2Willem II
- Willem II2-1PSV
- Willem II0-2PSV
- PSV3-0Willem II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PSV 1552 · Willem II 1406
| PSV | Draw | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 88% | 8% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.46 goals · Bet365 line 4.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSV (rating 1552 vs 1406).
- H2H favours PSV: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PSV | Willem II | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1.3 | 1 / 3.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 90/0/10% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.5 | 1.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PSV 4–1–1 Willem II
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Willem II |
| 28/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 0-2 HT 0-0 | PSV |
| 01/05/22 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 4-2 HT 3-1 | Willem II |
| 25/09/21 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 2-1 HT 1-1 | PSV |
| 09/05/21 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 0-2 HT 0-1 | PSV |
| 08/11/20 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Willem II |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 15 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | PSV | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 4-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Ajax | 3-1 W | 1-5 L |
| FC Utrecht | 6-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Excelsior | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Fortuna Sittard | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: PSV (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PSV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 17/10 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 09/10 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 6-1 | 13 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-1 | 5-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
Willem II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-3 | 1-6 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 11/10 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 11/09 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | D |
| 15/08 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in PSV vs Willem II?
According to our model, the most likely result is a PSV win (82%). Probabilities: PSV 82%, draw 11%, Willem II 7%.
How many goals are expected in PSV vs Willem II?
The model expects 4.46 goals (PSV 3.23 · Willem II 1.23), with a 55% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in PSV vs Willem II?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.