Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 31/10, 18:45
Prediction: Heerenveen vs NEC
Team pages: Heerenveen · NEC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.47Total
Heerenveen1.92
NEC1.54
1X2
Heerenveen
Draw
NEC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Heerenveen
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
NEC
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Heerenveen
2–2–2
NEC
(6 last)
- NEC2-2Heerenveen
- Heerenveen3-2NEC
- Heerenveen1-0NEC
- NEC3-0Heerenveen
- NEC2-0Heerenveen
- Heerenveen1-1NEC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Heerenveen 1539 · NEC 1498
| Heerenveen | Draw | NEC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 24% | 30% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heerenveen (rating 1539 vs 1498).
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Heerenveen | NEC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.8 | 2.1 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Heerenveen 2–2–2 NEC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Heerenveen |
| 21/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Heerenveen | 3-2 HT 1-0 | NEC |
| 27/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Heerenveen | 1-0 HT 0-0 | NEC |
| 19/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Heerenveen |
| 10/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Heerenveen |
| 07/10/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Heerenveen | 1-1 HT 1-1 | NEC |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 15 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 2 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Heerenveen | NEC |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Telstar | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Willem II | 2-2 D | 4-1 W |
| PEC Zwolle | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Ajax | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Heerenveen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 16/10 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/10 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 22/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
NEC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 08/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Heerenveen vs NEC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Heerenveen win (46%). Probabilities: Heerenveen 46%, draw 24%, NEC 30%.
How many goals are expected in Heerenveen vs NEC?
The model expects 3.47 goals (Heerenveen 1.92 · NEC 1.54), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs NEC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.