Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 06/11, 20:00
Prediction: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle
Team pages: Willem II · PEC Zwolle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.47Total
Willem II1.56
PEC Zwolle1.91
1X2
Willem II
Draw
PEC Zwolle
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Willem II
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
PEC Zwolle
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Willem II
2–1–3
PEC Zwolle
(6 last)
- Willem II1-2PEC Zwolle
- PEC Zwolle0-1Willem II
- Willem II2-3PEC Zwolle
- PEC Zwolle2-2Willem II
- PEC Zwolle2-0Willem II
- Willem II1-0PEC Zwolle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Willem II 1409 · PEC Zwolle 1435
| Willem II | Draw | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours PEC Zwolle: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Willem II | PEC Zwolle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 3.2 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.8 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Willem II 2–1–3 PEC Zwolle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 1-2 HT 0-1 | PEC Zwolle |
| 13/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Willem II |
| 10/03/23 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | Willem II | 2-3 HT 1-2 | PEC Zwolle |
| 09/09/22 Netherlands Eerste Divisie | PEC Zwolle | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Willem II |
| 14/01/22 Netherlands Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Willem II |
| 28/08/21 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 1-0 HT 0-0 | PEC Zwolle |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Ajax | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 13 | 21 |
| 3 | PSV | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | AZ | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | FC Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 21 | 15 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 23 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 22 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 27 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Willem II | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Cambuur Leeuwarden | 1-6 L | 0-1 L |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| FC Utrecht | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Ajax | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Heerenveen | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| NEC | 1-4 L | 1-3 L |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 1-4 L | 4-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 6 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: PEC Zwolle (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Willem II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-3 | 1-6 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 11/10 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 19/09 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 15/09 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 11/09 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 05/09 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 0 | D |
| 15/08 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 08/08 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
PEC Zwolle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 11/10 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 18/09 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 13/09 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-3 | 0-7 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 04/09 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 09/08 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PEC Zwolle win (45%). Probabilities: Willem II 31%, draw 25%, PEC Zwolle 45%.
How many goals are expected in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
The model expects 3.47 goals (Willem II 1.56 · PEC Zwolle 1.91), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.