Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 07/11, 16:30

Prediction: Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar

Team pages: Fortuna Sittard · Telstar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Fortuna Sittard1.87

Telstar1.39

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Fortuna Sittard Draw Telstar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Fortuna Sittard 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWDDWD

Telstar 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLDLDLLW

Head-to-head

Fortuna Sittard 2–3–1 Telstar (6 last)

Fortuna Sittard1-4Telstar
Telstar1-3Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard1-1Telstar
Telstar0-6Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard1-1Telstar
Telstar1-1Fortuna Sittard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortuna Sittard 1530 · Telstar 1442

	Fortuna Sittard	Draw	Telstar
Our model	48%	25%	28%
Market	47%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Sittard (rating 1530 vs 1442).
H2H favours Fortuna Sittard: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortuna Sittard	Telstar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.8	1.9 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.07
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 4.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +18’	2.00	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:45 +18’	2.07	3.74	3.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortuna Sittard 2–3–1 Telstar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-4 HT 1-2	Telstar
14/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Telstar	1-3 HT 1-1	Fortuna Sittard
16/02/18 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-1 HT 0-1	Telstar
29/09/17 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Telstar	0-6 HT 0-0	Fortuna Sittard
20/01/17 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-1 HT 0-1	Telstar
12/08/16 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Telstar	1-1 HT 0-0	Fortuna Sittard

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	33	12	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	30	13	24
3	PSV	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
4	FC Twente	11	7	2	2	28	10	23
5	AZ	11	6	2	3	20	13	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	11	5	4	2	18	18	19
7	Heerenveen	11	5	3	3	19	13	18
8	FC Groningen	11	4	3	4	26	24	15
9	Cambuur Leeuwarden	11	4	3	4	23	22	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	5	3	23	27	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	20	26	12
12	FC Utrecht	11	3	3	5	19	31	12
13	NEC	11	2	5	4	17	19	11
14	PEC Zwolle	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
15	Excelsior	11	3	2	6	16	28	11
16	Telstar	11	2	3	6	16	23	9
17	ADO Den Haag	11	1	3	7	13	24	6
18	Willem II	11	0	2	9	10	39	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fortuna Sittard	Telstar
Feyenoord	1-1 D	3-4 L
FC Twente	1-1 D	0-1 L
Ajax	1-5 L	0-4 L
ADO Den Haag	3-2 W	2-2 D
AZ	0-2 L	0-1 L
Cambuur Leeuwarden	3-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Fortuna Sittard (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fortuna Sittard

WLWWLWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
25/10	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
18/10	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	0	2	D
10/10	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
19/09	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
12/09	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-5	3	6	L
06/09	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-2	0	4	W
28/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-2	2	7	W
22/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
15/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-1	6	2	W

Telstar

LLDLDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	3-1	4-2	3	2	W
23/10	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-3	2	2	L
17/10	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	2-3	3-4	6	5	L
11/10	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	8	4	D
20/09	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-1	2	2	L
13/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
09/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
06/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-2	4	8	D
30/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-4	5	0	L
14/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-3	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortuna Sittard win (47%). Probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 47%, draw 26%, Telstar 27%.

How many goals are expected in Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Fortuna Sittard 1.87 · Telstar 1.39), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.