Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 07/11, 18:45

Prediction: ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam

Team pages: ADO Den Haag · Sparta Rotterdam

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

ADO Den Haag1.89

Sparta Rotterdam1.71

1X2

41% 25% 34%

ADO Den Haag Draw Sparta Rotterdam

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

ADO Den Haag 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDDWLL

Sparta Rotterdam 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDLLDWLW

Head-to-head

ADO Den Haag 1–2–3 Sparta Rotterdam (6 last)

ADO Den Haag0-2Sparta Rotterdam
ADO Den Haag0-2Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam1-1ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag2-0Sparta Rotterdam
ADO Den Haag1-1Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam6-0ADO Den Haag

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ADO Den Haag 1441 · Sparta Rotterdam 1486

	ADO Den Haag	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam
Our model	42%	24%	35%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Rotterdam (rating 1441 vs 1486).
H2H favours Sparta Rotterdam: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ADO Den Haag	Sparta Rotterdam
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.5	2.5 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.53 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.62
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 4.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +3’	2.30	3.60	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +19’	2.34	3.69	2.87
20:19 +3’	2.54▲	3.64▼	2.64▼
20:45 +10’	2.53▼	3.62▼	2.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · ADO Den Haag 1–2–3 Sparta Rotterdam

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/25 Europe Friendlies	ADO Den Haag	0-2 HT 0-2	Sparta Rotterdam
19/03/25 Europe Friendlies	ADO Den Haag	0-2 HT 0-1	Sparta Rotterdam
13/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Sparta Rotterdam	1-1 HT 1-1	ADO Den Haag
20/12/23 Netherlands Cup	ADO Den Haag	2-0 HT 1-0	Sparta Rotterdam
31/01/21 Netherlands Eredivisie	ADO Den Haag	1-1 HT 1-0	Sparta Rotterdam
22/11/20 Netherlands Eredivisie	Sparta Rotterdam	6-0 HT 1-0	ADO Den Haag

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	33	12	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	30	13	24
3	PSV	11	7	2	2	35	13	23
4	FC Twente	11	7	2	2	28	10	23
5	AZ	11	6	2	3	20	13	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	11	5	4	2	18	18	19
7	Heerenveen	11	5	3	3	19	13	18
8	FC Groningen	11	4	3	4	26	24	15
9	Cambuur Leeuwarden	11	4	3	4	23	22	15
10	Go Ahead Eagles	11	3	5	3	23	27	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam	11	3	3	5	20	26	12
12	FC Utrecht	11	3	3	5	19	31	12
13	NEC	11	2	5	4	17	19	11
14	PEC Zwolle	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
15	Excelsior	11	3	2	6	16	28	11
16	Telstar	11	2	3	6	16	23	9
17	ADO Den Haag	11	1	3	7	13	24	6
18	Willem II	11	0	2	9	10	39	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ADO Den Haag	Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle	0-1 L	2-2 D
Heerenveen	2-3 L	0-4 L
PSV	2-1 W	1-4 L
Telstar	2-2 D	3-1 W
Go Ahead Eagles	1-3 L	3-3 D
FC Groningen	1-4 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Rotterdam (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ADO Den Haag

LLDLLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
24/10	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-3	8	1	L
17/10	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	0	4	D
19/09	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
12/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
06/09	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-3	2	4	L
30/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
23/08	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-3	3	3	L
16/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-3	1-4	5	1	L

Sparta Rotterdam

WDLDLLDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	3-2	7	4	W
25/10	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
17/10	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-2	3	8	W
10/10	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
19/09	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
13/09	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	5	2	L
04/09	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	15	2	D
29/08	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
22/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-3	5	0	D
14/08	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ADO Den Haag win (41%). Probabilities: ADO Den Haag 41%, draw 25%, Sparta Rotterdam 34%.

How many goals are expected in ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam?

The model expects 3.61 goals (ADO Den Haag 1.89 · Sparta Rotterdam 1.71), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.