Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 09/08, 14:30
Prediction: PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
PEC Zwolle0.93
Ajax2.02
1X2
PEC Zwolle
Draw
Ajax
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
PEC Zwolle
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Ajax
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
PEC Zwolle
1–1–4
Ajax
(6 last)
- PEC Zwolle0-0Ajax
- Ajax3-1PEC Zwolle
- PEC Zwolle0-1Ajax
- Ajax2-0PEC Zwolle
- Ajax0-1PEC Zwolle
- PEC Zwolle1-3Ajax
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PEC Zwolle 1442 · Ajax 1591
| PEC Zwolle | Draw | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 16% | 23% | 62% |
| Market | 16% | 22% | 62% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (rating 1442 vs 1591).
- H2H favours Ajax: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PEC Zwolle | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.7 | 1.9 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.8 | 3.6 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PEC Zwolle 1–1–4 Ajax
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ajax |
| 13/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 3-1 HT 2-0 | PEC Zwolle |
| 09/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ajax |
| 24/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 2-0 HT 1-0 | PEC Zwolle |
| 05/07/24 Europe Friendlies | Ajax | 0-1 HT 0-1 | PEC Zwolle |
| 31/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Ajax |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADO Den Haag | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Excelsior | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Groningen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fortuna Sittard | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Go Ahead Eagles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | NEC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PSV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Telstar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Willem II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PEC Zwolle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Hannover 96 Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | AEK Athens Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Cercle Brugge Club Friendly List |
2-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/04 | PSV Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/04 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 05/04 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-3 | 0-5 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 21/03 | NAC Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Ajax
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | FC Volendam Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/07 | Vojvodina UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Burnley Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 23/07 | Vojvodina UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Olympiacos Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 15/07 | Bochum Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 10/07 | AEK Larnaca Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Panathinaikos Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 21/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ajax win (62%). Probabilities: PEC Zwolle 16%, draw 22%, Ajax 62%.
How many goals are expected in PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
The model expects 2.95 goals (PEC Zwolle 0.93 · Ajax 2.02), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.