Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 08/08, 20:00

Prediction: PSV vs Fortuna Sittard

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.29Total

PSV3.15

Fortuna Sittard1.15

1X2

77% 14% 10%

PSV Draw Fortuna Sittard

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

PSV 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWDWLW

Fortuna Sittard 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWWLLW

Head-to-head

PSV 5–1–0 Fortuna Sittard (6 last)

Fortuna Sittard1-2PSV
PSV5-2Fortuna Sittard
PSV4-1Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard1-3PSV
Fortuna Sittard1-1PSV
PSV3-1Fortuna Sittard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PSV 1593 · Fortuna Sittard 1463

	PSV	Draw	Fortuna Sittard
Our model	76%	14%	10%
Market	77%	13%	9%

Estimated total (ours) 4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours PSV (rating 1593 vs 1463).
H2H favours PSV: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PSV	Fortuna Sittard
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.4	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.7	3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.20

X7.00

210.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.90

2 (+2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.93

Under 41.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.20	Pinn 1.22
X	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.54 ★
2	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:28	1.20	7.00	10.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:27 +1’	1.22	7.51	8.85
10:42 +1’	1.22▼	7.54▲	8.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PSV 5–1–0 Fortuna Sittard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-2 HT 1-1	PSV
31/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	5-2 HT 3-0	Fortuna Sittard
03/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	4-1 HT 2-0	Fortuna Sittard
22/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-3 HT 1-1	PSV
12/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-1 HT 1-0	PSV
21/10/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	PSV	3-1 HT 1-0	Fortuna Sittard

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADO Den Haag	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Excelsior	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Groningen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fortuna Sittard	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Go Ahead Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NEC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PEC Zwolle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cambuur Leeuwarden	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heerenveen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Telstar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sparta Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Willem II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PSV	Fortuna Sittard
PEC Zwolle	6-1 W	3-2 W
FC Utrecht	4-3 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PSV (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

PSV

WWWDWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	FC Eindhoven Elite Club Friendlies	2-0	3-0	6	1	W
25/07	Villarreal Elite Club Friendlies	0-0	1-3	2	3	L
11/07	Rakow Czestochowa Club Friendly List	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
04/07	Antwerp Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	7	0	D
17/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	5-1	11	2	W
10/05	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	4-1	4	0	W
02/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
23/04	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	6-1	4	2	W
11/04	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
04/04	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	4-3	8	1	W

Fortuna Sittard

DLLWLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Apoel Nicosia Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
25/07	Metz Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
17/07	Olympiacos Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-3	5	0	L
11/07	Genk Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-1	0	0	W
03/07	Lierse Kempenzonen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
17/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
10/05	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	6	1	W
03/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
25/04	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
12/04	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PSV vs Fortuna Sittard?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PSV win (77%). Probabilities: PSV 77%, draw 14%, Fortuna Sittard 10%.

How many goals are expected in PSV vs Fortuna Sittard?

The model expects 4.29 goals (PSV 3.15 · Fortuna Sittard 1.15), with a 51% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in PSV vs Fortuna Sittard?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.