Football · Mexico Liga MX · 18/07, 03:00
Prediction: Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Atletico San Luis1.09
Cruz Azul1.71
1X2
Atletico San Luis
Draw
Cruz Azul
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico San Luis
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Cruz Azul
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico San Luis
1–5
Cruz Azul
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico San Luis 1462 · Cruz Azul 1575
| Atletico San Luis | Draw | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 26% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 26% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruz Azul (rating 1462 vs 1575).
- H2H favours Cruz Azul: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico San Luis | Cruz Azul | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.6 | 3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico San Luis 1–0–5 Cruz Azul
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Cruz Azul | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico San Luis |
| 12/08/25 Mexico Liga MX | Atletico San Luis | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Cruz Azul |
| 16/03/25 Mexico Liga MX | Cruz Azul | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Atletico San Luis |
| 18/09/24 Mexico Liga MX | Atletico San Luis | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Cruz Azul |
| 11/02/24 Mexico Liga MX | Cruz Azul | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico San Luis |
| 30/09/23 Mexico Liga MX | Atletico San Luis | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Cruz Azul |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atlas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico San Luis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chivas Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Necaxa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puebla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tijuana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juarez FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unam Pumas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tigres UANL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico San Luis
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 23/04 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/04 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 05/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 08/03 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 04/03 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 01/03 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
Cruz Azul
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Atletico Morelia America Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/04 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruz Azul win (51%). Probabilities: Atletico San Luis 23%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 51%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Atletico San Luis 1.09 · Cruz Azul 1.71), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico San Luis vs Cruz Azul?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.