Football · Mexico Liga MX · 19/07, 03:00
Prediction: Chivas Guadalajara vs Toluca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.82Total
Chivas Guadalajara1.54
Toluca1.29
1X2
Chivas Guadalajara
Draw
Toluca
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chivas Guadalajara
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Toluca
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chivas Guadalajara
1–2–3
Toluca
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chivas Guadalajara 1514 · Toluca 1495
| Chivas Guadalajara | Draw | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.82 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Toluca: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chivas Guadalajara | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6.9 | 2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.3 | 3 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chivas Guadalajara 1–2–3 Toluca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 21/09/25 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Toluca |
| 16/02/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 07/07/24 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
| 12/05/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 09/05/24 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atlas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico San Luis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chivas Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Necaxa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puebla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tijuana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juarez FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unam Pumas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tigres UANL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chivas Guadalajara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Correcaminos America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 19/04 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 06/04 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 9 | D |
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Cancun FC America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 07/05 | Los Angeles FC CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 30/04 | Los Angeles FC CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/04 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/04 | LA Galaxy CONCACAF Champions Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chivas Guadalajara vs Toluca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chivas Guadalajara win (42%). Probabilities: Chivas Guadalajara 42%, draw 27%, Toluca 31%.
How many goals are expected in Chivas Guadalajara vs Toluca?
The model expects 2.82 goals (Chivas Guadalajara 1.54 · Toluca 1.29), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chivas Guadalajara vs Toluca?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.