Prediction: Cruz Azul vs Puebla
| Cruz Azul | Draw | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 20% | 13% |
| Market | 68% | 20% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruz Azul (rating 1600 vs 1426).
- H2H favours Cruz Azul: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cruz Azul | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.6 | 1.7 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 3.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruz Azul 4–1–1 Puebla
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 Mexico Liga MX | Cruz Azul | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Puebla |
| 01/11/25 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Cruz Azul |
| 26/01/25 Mexico Liga MX | Cruz Azul | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Puebla |
| 19/10/24 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Cruz Azul |
| 13/04/24 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cruz Azul |
| 13/11/23 Mexico Liga MX | Cruz Azul | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Puebla |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atlas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico San Luis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chivas Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Necaxa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puebla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tijuana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juarez FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unam Pumas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tigres UANL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cruz Azul | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Chivas Guadalajara | 2-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Necaxa | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Queretaro | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cruz Azul (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cruz Azul
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Atletico Morelia America Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/04 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
Puebla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 23/03 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/03 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 08/03 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 05/03 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 01/03 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cruz Azul vs Puebla?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruz Azul win (68%). Probabilities: Cruz Azul 68%, draw 20%, Puebla 13%.
How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul vs Puebla?
The model expects 3.25 goals (Cruz Azul 2.33 · Puebla 0.93), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Puebla?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.