Prediction: Toluca vs Unam Pumas
| Toluca | Draw | Unam Pumas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | 55% | 24% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Toluca: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca | Unam Pumas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.9 | 1.9 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.4 | 3.4 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca 2–4–0 Unam Pumas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Toluca |
| 17/08/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Unam Pumas |
| 30/01/25 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
| 06/10/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Unam Pumas |
| 18/03/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Unam Pumas |
| 19/08/23 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Toluca |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atlas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico San Luis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chivas Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Necaxa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puebla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tijuana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juarez FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unam Pumas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tigres UANL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca | Unam Pumas |
|---|---|---|
| Cancun FC | 0-1 L | 3-0 W |
| Pachuca | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Club America | 1-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Unam Pumas (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Cancun FC America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 07/05 | Los Angeles FC CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 30/04 | Los Angeles FC CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/04 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 16/04 | LA Galaxy CONCACAF Champions Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
Unam Pumas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | America de Cali America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | Cancun FC America Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
3-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/04 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca vs Unam Pumas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca win (55%). Probabilities: Toluca 55%, draw 24%, Unam Pumas 21%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Unam Pumas?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Toluca 1.9 · Unam Pumas 1.1), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Unam Pumas?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.