Football · Mexico Liga MX · 29/08, 03:00

Prediction: Necaxa vs Cruz Azul

Team pages: Necaxa · Cruz Azul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Necaxa1.35

Cruz Azul1.7

1X2

29% 26% 44%

Necaxa Draw Cruz Azul

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Necaxa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLWWLL

Cruz Azul 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWWLLL

Head-to-head

Necaxa 1–1–4 Cruz Azul (6 last)

Cruz Azul4-1Necaxa
Necaxa1-1Cruz Azul
Necaxa1-3Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul3-0Necaxa
Cruz Azul1-2Necaxa
Necaxa1-3Cruz Azul

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Necaxa 1466 · Cruz Azul 1529

	Necaxa	Draw	Cruz Azul
Our model	29%	26%	45%
Market	29%	27%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruz Azul (rating 1466 vs 1529).
H2H favours Cruz Azul: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Necaxa	Cruz Azul
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	3.5 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.8	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:28 +7’	3.20	3.50	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Necaxa 1–1–4 Cruz Azul

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	4-1 HT 0-0	Necaxa
22/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	1-1 HT 0-0	Cruz Azul
29/01/25 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	1-3 HT 1-1	Cruz Azul
06/10/24 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	3-0 HT 2-0	Necaxa
17/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	1-2 HT 1-2	Necaxa
05/10/23 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	1-3 HT 0-1	Cruz Azul

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	5	4	1	0	10	2	13
2	Atlas	5	4	0	1	8	5	12
3	Toluca	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
4	Chivas Guadalajara	5	3	1	1	8	5	10
5	Puebla	5	3	1	1	9	7	10
6	Tijuana	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
7	Monterrey	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
8	Leon	5	3	0	2	7	5	9
9	Unam Pumas	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
10	Queretaro	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
11	Necaxa	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
12	Cruz Azul	5	2	0	3	8	10	6
13	Atlante	5	1	2	2	5	7	5
14	Tigres UANL	5	1	1	3	8	10	4
15	Pachuca	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
16	Atletico San Luis	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
17	Santos Laguna	5	0	0	5	4	11	0
18	Juarez FC	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Necaxa	Cruz Azul
Atlante	2-1 W	2-3 L
Chivas Guadalajara	0-0 D	2-1 W
Tijuana	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Necaxa (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Necaxa

WWLDDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
03/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
27/07	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
17/07	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
27/04	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-4	5	6	L
23/04	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
19/04	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
12/04	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
04/04	Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
21/03	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	6	2	W

Cruz Azul

WDWDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
17/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
02/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	7	3	L
22/07	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/07	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	3-2	4	3	W
25/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
22/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
17/05	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
14/05	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
10/05	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruz Azul win (44%). Probabilities: Necaxa 29%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 44%.

How many goals are expected in Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Necaxa 1.35 · Cruz Azul 1.7), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Cruz Azul?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.