Football · Mexico Liga MX · 25/10, 01:00

Prediction: Leon vs Toluca

Team pages: Leon · Toluca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Leon1.3

Toluca1.65

1X2

30% 26% 45%

Leon Draw Toluca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Leon 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWDWDL

Toluca 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWLDLD

Head-to-head

Leon 0–2–4 Toluca (6 last)

Toluca2-0Leon
Toluca4-1Leon
Leon2-4Toluca
Leon3-3Toluca
Toluca2-2Leon
Toluca4-1Leon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leon 1510 · Toluca 1553

	Leon	Draw	Toluca
Our model	29%	26%	44%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (rating 1510 vs 1553).
H2H favours Toluca: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leon	Toluca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	2.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.5	4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.70

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +2’	3.10	3.70	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leon 0–2–4 Toluca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/09/26 Leagues Cup	Toluca	2-0 HT 1-0	Leon
26/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	4-1 HT 1-1	Leon
05/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	2-4 HT 1-1	Toluca
09/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	3-3 HT 2-0	Toluca
03/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	2-2 HT 0-1	Leon
04/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	4-1 HT 3-0	Leon

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	11	7	3	1	27	14	24
2	Toluca	12	6	3	3	26	16	21
3	Atlas	12	6	3	3	19	18	21
4	Chivas Guadalajara	12	5	5	2	19	12	20
5	Cruz Azul	12	6	2	4	27	21	20
6	Queretaro	11	6	2	3	15	13	20
7	Leon	12	5	3	4	18	17	18
8	Monterrey	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	5	1	6	17	16	16
10	Tijuana	11	4	4	3	15	14	16
11	Unam Pumas	12	4	4	4	19	20	16
12	Puebla	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
13	Tigres UANL	12	3	5	4	14	16	14
14	Pachuca	12	3	4	5	19	16	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
16	Atlante	12	2	5	5	13	19	11
17	Necaxa	12	2	3	7	15	25	9
18	Juarez FC	12	1	1	10	8	31	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leon	Toluca
Puebla	1-1 D	1-0 W
Juarez FC	2-1 W	4-0 W
Queretaro	1-1 D	2-1 W
Atletico San Luis	2-0 W	1-1 D
Atlante	1-1 D	0-0 D
Necaxa	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Toluca (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leon

WWWDLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-2	3-5	7	8	L
10/10	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
28/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
21/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
15/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
11/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	2	3	L
29/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
18/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
02/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	3	12	W

Toluca

WDWWWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	15	0	D
10/10	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
27/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-2	3-3	5	5	D
21/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-3	6	3	L
16/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
13/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	6	4	W
31/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
22/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	6	7	W
16/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
03/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-1	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leon vs Toluca?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca win (45%). Probabilities: Leon 30%, draw 26%, Toluca 45%.

How many goals are expected in Leon vs Toluca?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Leon 1.3 · Toluca 1.65), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Leon vs Toluca?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.