Football · China Division 2 · 05/08, 13:30

Prediction: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Beijing Institute

Team pages: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic · Beijing Institute

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1.79

Beijing Institute0.56

1X2

67% 22% 11%

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic Draw Beijing Institute

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1-8-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDLDWDDD

Beijing Institute 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

DLDLDLLLLL

Head-to-head

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1–1–3 Beijing Institute (5 last)

Beijing Institute0-1Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic0-2Beijing Institute
Beijing Institute2-0Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic0-0Beijing Institute
Beijing Institute3-2Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1501 · Beijing Institute 1397

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Draw	Beijing Institute
Our model	66%	24%	10%
Market	67%	21%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic (rating 1501 vs 1397).
H2H favours Beijing Institute: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Beijing Institute
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.7 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.20

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.77

2 (+1.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:03 +4’	1.33	4.20	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1–1–3 Beijing Institute

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	0-1 HT 0-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
02/08/25 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	0-2 HT 0-1	Beijing Institute
26/05/25 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	2-0 HT 0-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
08/06/24 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	0-0 HT 0-0	Beijing Institute
31/03/24 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	3-2 HT 0-1	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Group North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	18	11	4	3	33	14	37
2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	19	11	4	4	28	17	37
3	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	18	10	3	5	26	15	33
4	Dalian Kewei	19	8	9	2	18	10	33
5	Tai'an Tiankuang	19	8	5	6	23	20	29
6	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	18	4	9	5	16	18	21
7	Nantong Haimen Codion	19	4	9	6	20	20	21
8	Qingdao Red Lions	19	4	9	6	20	17	21
9	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	18	2	12	4	9	14	18
10	Changchun Xidu	18	2	10	6	10	22	16
11	Shanghai Segenda	19	2	8	9	19	33	14
12	Beijing Institute	18	1	6	11	13	35	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Beijing Institute
Qingdao Red Lions	0-0 D	1-6 L
Tai'an Tiankuang	2-2 D	1-1 D
Nantong Haimen Codion	0-0 D	1-2 L
Shandong Taishan Reserves	1-3 L	1-3 L
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	0-0 D	1-1 D
Changchun Xidu	0-0 D	0-0 D
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 6 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

DDDDLDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
25/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	2-2	6	2	D
22/07	Shaanxi Union China FA Cup	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
19/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
04/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
27/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/06	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
19/06	Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China FA Cup	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
13/06	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Beijing Institute

DLDLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
29/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
27/07	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-3	1-6	4	1	L
18/07	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/07	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-4	1-5	3	1	L
28/06	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
24/06	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
13/06	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	5	7	D
06/06	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
27/05	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Beijing Institute?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic win (67%). Probabilities: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 67%, draw 22%, Beijing Institute 11%.

How many goals are expected in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Beijing Institute?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1.79 · Beijing Institute 0.56), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Beijing Institute?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.