Football · Bulgaria First League · 19/07, 18:30
Prediction: Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
Botev Vratsa0.97
Cherno More Varna1.08
1X2
Botev Vratsa
Draw
Cherno More Varna
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Botev Vratsa
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Cherno More Varna
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Botev Vratsa
1–1–4
Cherno More Varna
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botev Vratsa 1572 · Cherno More Varna 1505
| Botev Vratsa | Draw | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 33% | 36% |
| Market | 32% | 31% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Botev Vratsa (rating 1572 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Cherno More Varna: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botev Vratsa | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 2.4 | 2.1 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Vratsa 1–1–4 Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/02/26 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Botev Vratsa |
| 29/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 07/12/24 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Cherno More Varna |
| 12/08/24 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Botev Vratsa |
| 01/03/24 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Botev Vratsa |
| 01/09/23 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arda Kardzhali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunav Ruse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Septemvri Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Spartak Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cherno More Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Slavia Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Vratsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Botev Vratsa | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Spartak Pleven | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Botev Vratsa (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botev Vratsa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 03/07 | Beitar Jerusalem Europe Friendlies |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/07 | Spartak Pleven Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Levski Sofia Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 22/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 18/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Dunav Ruse Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 03/07 | Spartak Pleven Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Yantra Gabrovo Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 15/04 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cherno More Varna win (37%). Probabilities: Botev Vratsa 31%, draw 32%, Cherno More Varna 37%.
How many goals are expected in Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Botev Vratsa 0.97 · Cherno More Varna 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Botev Vratsa vs Cherno More Varna?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.