Football · Bulgaria First League · 25/07, 20:15
Prediction: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Levski Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0.99
Levski Sofia1.91
1X2
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Draw
Levski Sofia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Levski Sofia
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
0–1–5
Levski Sofia
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1509 · Levski Sofia 1594
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | Draw | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 24% | 58% |
| Market | 18% | 25% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1509 vs 1594).
- H2H favours Levski Sofia: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 2.6 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/0/60% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.2 | 2.6 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0–1–5 Levski Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 4-3 HT 1-1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 14/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Levski Sofia |
| 23/11/24 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
| 20/07/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 1-6 HT 1-4 | Levski Sofia |
| 27/11/23 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Levski Sofia |
| 30/07/23 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 6-0 HT 2-0 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Spartak Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Cherno More Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Botev Vratsa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | KF Drita Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 18/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 05/05 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 14/04 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 09/04 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
Levski Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Borac Banja Luka UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/07 | Borac Banja Luka UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 30/06 | FK Radnik Surdulica Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Botev Vratsa Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Akademik Svishtov Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Levski Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Levski Sofia win (58%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 18%, draw 24%, Levski Sofia 58%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Levski Sofia?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0.99 · Levski Sofia 1.91), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.