Football · Bulgaria First League · 27/07, 18:00
Prediction: Dunav Ruse vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Dunav Ruse0.34
Ludogorets Razgrad2.07
1X2
Dunav Ruse
Draw
Ludogorets Razgrad
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 58%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
Dunav Ruse
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Ludogorets Razgrad
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dunav Ruse
0–6
Ludogorets Razgrad
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dunav Ruse 1484 · Ludogorets Razgrad 1555
| Dunav Ruse | Draw | Ludogorets Razgrad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 4% | 18% | 78% |
| Market | 6% | 14% | 80% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ludogorets Razgrad (rating 1484 vs 1555).
- H2H favours Ludogorets Razgrad: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dunav Ruse | Ludogorets Razgrad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.8 | 2.2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 4.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunav Ruse 0–0–6 Ludogorets Razgrad
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/20 Europe Friendlies | Ludogorets Razgrad | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Dunav Ruse |
| 08/03/20 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 5-1 HT 4-1 | Dunav Ruse |
| 29/09/19 Bulgaria First League | Dunav Ruse | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 16/12/18 Bulgaria First League | Dunav Ruse | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 02/09/18 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Dunav Ruse |
| 04/12/17 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Dunav Ruse |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Spartak Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Cherno More Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Botev Vratsa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dunav Ruse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Cherno More Varna Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/07 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/06 | Spartak Varna Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/05 | FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
Ludogorets Razgrad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/07 | Teuta Durres Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/07 | Septemvri Sofia Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Botosani Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 26/06 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List |
5-2 | 7-4 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 13/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dunav Ruse vs Ludogorets Razgrad?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ludogorets Razgrad win (79%). Probabilities: Dunav Ruse 5%, draw 16%, Ludogorets Razgrad 79%.
How many goals are expected in Dunav Ruse vs Ludogorets Razgrad?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Dunav Ruse 0.34 · Ludogorets Razgrad 2.07), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Dunav Ruse vs Ludogorets Razgrad?
The model gives a 58% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.