Football · Bulgaria First League · 26/07, 20:15
Prediction: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
Lokomotiv Plovdiv1.41
Septemvri Sofia0.67
1X2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Draw
Septemvri Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Septemvri Sofia
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3–1–2
Septemvri Sofia
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1521 · Septemvri Sofia 1514
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 30% | 17% |
| Market | 55% | 27% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 3.2 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.3 | 5.6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3–1–2 Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 03/10/25 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 28/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 16/02/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 26/08/24 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 07/04/23 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Spartak Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Cherno More Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Botev Vratsa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Arda Kardzhali | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Lokomotiv Plovdiv (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/07 | Rilski Sportist Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 16/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 10/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/05 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria First League Play-Offs |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 15 | D |
| 18/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 01/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win (54%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 54%, draw 28%, Septemvri Sofia 17%.
How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model expects 2.07 goals (Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.41 · Septemvri Sofia 0.67), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.