Football · Bulgaria First League · 27/07, 20:15
Prediction: CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
CSKA Sofia1.73
Botev Plovdiv0.66
1X2
CSKA Sofia
Draw
Botev Plovdiv
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
CSKA Sofia
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Botev Plovdiv
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CSKA Sofia
4–1–1
Botev Plovdiv
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CSKA Sofia 1536 · Botev Plovdiv 1510
| CSKA Sofia | Draw | Botev Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 25% | 13% |
| Market | 63% | 24% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours CSKA Sofia: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CSKA Sofia | Botev Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 7.7 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CSKA Sofia 4–1–1 Botev Plovdiv
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 19/07/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 1-1 HT 1-1 | CSKA Sofia |
| 26/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 0-4 HT 0-1 | CSKA Sofia |
| 09/05/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 22/02/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 0-3 HT 0-1 | CSKA Sofia |
| 30/08/24 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Spartak Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Septemvri Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Cherno More Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Botev Vratsa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CSKA Sofia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 16/07 | Derry City UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/07 | Derry City UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/07 | Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | Odra Opole Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | NK Brinje Grosuplje Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 8 | D |
| 16/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
Botev Plovdiv
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Beroe Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Spartak Varna Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | KF Ballkani Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/06 | Spartak Pleven Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 12/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CSKA Sofia win (63%). Probabilities: CSKA Sofia 63%, draw 24%, Botev Plovdiv 13%.
How many goals are expected in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model expects 2.39 goals (CSKA Sofia 1.73 · Botev Plovdiv 0.66), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CSKA Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.