Football · Bulgaria First League · 17/07, 18:00
Prediction: Spartak Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.12Total
Spartak Varna0.85
CSKA 1948 Sofia1.27
1X2
Spartak Varna
Draw
CSKA 1948 Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Spartak Varna
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
CSKA 1948 Sofia
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spartak Varna
0–4–2
CSKA 1948 Sofia
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spartak Varna 1484 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1539
| Spartak Varna | Draw | CSKA 1948 Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 31% | 45% |
| Market | 25% | 28% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA 1948 Sofia (rating 1484 vs 1539).
- H2H favours CSKA 1948 Sofia: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spartak Varna | CSKA 1948 Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/33/22% | 33/67/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.1 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spartak Varna 0–4–2 CSKA 1948 Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 1-2 HT 0-0 | CSKA 1948 Sofia |
| 04/10/25 Bulgaria First League | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Spartak Varna |
| 29/11/24 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 1-1 HT 0-1 | CSKA 1948 Sofia |
| 28/07/24 Bulgaria First League | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Spartak Varna |
| 03/05/23 Bulgaria First League | Spartak Varna | 3-3 HT 0-0 | CSKA 1948 Sofia |
| 16/10/22 Bulgaria First League | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Spartak Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arda Kardzhali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunav Ruse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Septemvri Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Spartak Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cherno More Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Slavia Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Vratsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spartak Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Nesebar Club Friendly List |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Botev Plovdiv Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | Dunav Ruse Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 22/05 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/05 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 10/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
CSKA 1948 Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | NK Varazdin Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 01/07 | NK Maribor Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 29/06 | Partizan Belgrade Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 21/06 | KF Drita Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/06 | FK Egnatia Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 13/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 08/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spartak Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA 1948 Sofia win (46%). Probabilities: Spartak Varna 25%, draw 30%, CSKA 1948 Sofia 46%.
How many goals are expected in Spartak Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
The model expects 2.12 goals (Spartak Varna 0.85 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.27), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.