Football · Bulgaria First League · 17/07, 20:15
Prediction: Levski Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Levski Sofia2.17
Dunav Ruse0.31
1X2
Levski Sofia
Draw
Dunav Ruse
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 58%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Levski Sofia
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Dunav Ruse
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Levski Sofia
6–0
Dunav Ruse
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Levski Sofia 1552 · Dunav Ruse 1488
| Levski Sofia | Draw | Dunav Ruse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 80% | 16% | 4% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1552 vs 1488).
- H2H favours Levski Sofia: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Levski Sofia | Dunav Ruse | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.4 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.1 | 2.7 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Levski Sofia 6–0–0 Dunav Ruse
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/24 Bulgaria Cup | Levski Sofia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Dunav Ruse |
| 22/11/23 Bulgaria Cup | Dunav Ruse | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Levski Sofia |
| 31/10/19 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Dunav Ruse |
| 15/07/19 Bulgaria First League | Dunav Ruse | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Levski Sofia |
| 01/12/18 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Dunav Ruse |
| 11/08/18 Bulgaria First League | Dunav Ruse | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Levski Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arda Kardzhali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunav Ruse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Septemvri Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Spartak Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cherno More Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Slavia Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Vratsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Levski Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Borac Banja Luka UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 30/06 | FK Radnik Surdulica Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Botev Vratsa Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Akademik Svishtov Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
Dunav Ruse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/06 | Spartak Varna Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/05 | FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Sportist Svoge Bulgaria Second League |
2-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 17/04 | Marek Dupnitsa Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 13/04 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Levski Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Levski Sofia win (81%). Probabilities: Levski Sofia 81%, draw 14%, Dunav Ruse 5%.
How many goals are expected in Levski Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Levski Sofia 2.17 · Dunav Ruse 0.31), with a 61% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Dunav Ruse?
The model gives a 58% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.