Football · Bulgaria First League · 18/07, 18:00
Prediction: Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.14Total
Septemvri Sofia0.88
Arda Kardzhali1.26
1X2
Septemvri Sofia
Draw
Arda Kardzhali
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Septemvri Sofia
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Arda Kardzhali
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Septemvri Sofia
2–4
Arda Kardzhali
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Septemvri Sofia 1523 · Arda Kardzhali 1514
| Septemvri Sofia | Draw | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 31% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Arda Kardzhali: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Septemvri Sofia | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.1 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.6 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Septemvri Sofia 2–0–4 Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 20/10/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 08/07/25 Europe Friendlies | Arda Kardzhali | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 07/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 25/10/24 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 12/02/23 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arda Kardzhali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunav Ruse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Septemvri Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Spartak Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cherno More Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Slavia Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Vratsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/05 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria First League Play-Offs |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 15 | D |
| 18/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 01/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 27/04 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Botev Vratsa Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 07/07 | Beitar Jerusalem Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 01/07 | Rilski Sportist Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/06 | Botev Plovdiv Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arda Kardzhali win (45%). Probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 25%, draw 30%, Arda Kardzhali 45%.
How many goals are expected in Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model expects 2.14 goals (Septemvri Sofia 0.88 · Arda Kardzhali 1.26), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.