Football · Bulgaria First League · 20/07, 18:15
Prediction: Slavia Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Slavia Sofia0.96
CSKA Sofia1.56
1X2
Slavia Sofia
Draw
CSKA Sofia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Slavia Sofia
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
CSKA Sofia
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Slavia Sofia
2–2–2
CSKA Sofia
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Slavia Sofia 1489 · CSKA Sofia 1544
| Slavia Sofia | Draw | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 28% | 50% |
| Market | 23% | 27% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia (rating 1489 vs 1544).
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Slavia Sofia | CSKA Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 44/22/33% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.3 | 3.4 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Slavia Sofia 2–2–2 CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Slavia Sofia |
| 30/08/25 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 2-2 HT 2-1 | CSKA Sofia |
| 08/02/25 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CSKA Sofia |
| 17/08/24 Bulgaria First League | CSKA Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Slavia Sofia |
| 05/12/23 Bulgaria Cup | Slavia Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | CSKA Sofia |
| 01/12/23 Bulgaria First League | Slavia Sofia | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CSKA Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arda Kardzhali | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Dunav Ruse | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Septemvri Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Spartak Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cherno More Varna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CSKA Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Slavia Sofia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Plovdiv | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Botev Vratsa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Slavia Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Montana Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 7-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 08/07 | CSM Slatina Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 18/05 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 13/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 02/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 16/04 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
CSKA Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Derry City UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 03/07 | Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | Odra Opole Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-2 | 13 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | NK Brinje Grosuplje Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 20/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 8 | D |
| 16/05 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 13/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 08/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Slavia Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA Sofia win (50%). Probabilities: Slavia Sofia 22%, draw 27%, CSKA Sofia 50%.
How many goals are expected in Slavia Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Slavia Sofia 0.96 · CSKA Sofia 1.56), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Slavia Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.