Football · Bulgaria First League · 01/08, 20:15
Prediction: Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.31Total
Botev Plovdiv1.33
Cherno More Varna0.98
1X2
Botev Plovdiv
Draw
Cherno More Varna
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Botev Plovdiv
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Cherno More Varna
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Botev Plovdiv
3–1–2
Cherno More Varna
(6 last)
- Botev Plovdiv5-0Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna2-0Botev Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv2-1Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna2-1Botev Plovdiv
- Cherno More Varna1-1Botev Plovdiv
- Botev Plovdiv1-0Cherno More Varna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botev Plovdiv 1513 · Cherno More Varna 1537
| Botev Plovdiv | Draw | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Botev Plovdiv: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Botev Plovdiv | Cherno More Varna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.8 | 2.5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Botev Plovdiv 3–1–2 Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 09/05/26 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 29/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 27/07/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 05/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Botev Plovdiv |
| 25/10/24 Bulgaria First League | Botev Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cherno More Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Arda Kardzhali | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Cherno More Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | Botev Vratsa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Slavia Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Spartak Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Botev Plovdiv | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Arda Kardzhali | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Spartak Pleven | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Botev Plovdiv (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botev Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 12/07 | Beroe Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Spartak Varna Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | KF Ballkani Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 26/06 | Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/06 | Spartak Pleven Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 25/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 12/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/07 | Dunav Ruse Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 03/07 | Spartak Pleven Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Yantra Gabrovo Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 03/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Botev Plovdiv win (44%). Probabilities: Botev Plovdiv 44%, draw 30%, Cherno More Varna 27%.
How many goals are expected in Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
The model expects 2.31 goals (Botev Plovdiv 1.33 · Cherno More Varna 0.98), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.