Football · Bulgaria First League · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Team pages: Levski Sofia · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.34Total
Levski Sofia1.77
Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.57
1X2
Levski Sofia
Draw
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Levski Sofia
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Levski Sofia
5–1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
(6 last)
- Levski Sofia1-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-0Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia2-1Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv0-2Levski Sofia
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv1-2Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia3-0Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Levski Sofia 1588 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1533
| Levski Sofia | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 24% | 10% |
| Market | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1588 vs 1533).
- H2H favours Levski Sofia: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Levski Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 0.6 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.8 | 0.9 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Levski Sofia 5–0–1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 26/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Levski Sofia |
| 04/12/24 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
| 02/08/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Levski Sofia |
| 18/05/24 Bulgaria First League | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Levski Sofia |
| 02/12/23 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Spartak Varna | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 10 | Slavia Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Levski Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 29/07 | CS U Craiova UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 25/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | CS U Craiova UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 17/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Borac Banja Luka UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/07 | Borac Banja Luka UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 30/06 | FK Radnik Surdulica Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Botev Vratsa Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/07 | Rilski Sportist Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Arda Kardzhali Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 16/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Levski Sofia win (66%). Probabilities: Levski Sofia 66%, draw 23%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 11%.
How many goals are expected in Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model expects 2.34 goals (Levski Sofia 1.77 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.57), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.