Football · Bulgaria First League · 08/08, 17:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia

Team pages: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia · CSKA 1948 Sofia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0.99

CSKA 1948 Sofia1.47

1X2

25% 28% 47%

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Draw CSKA 1948 Sofia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWDLD

CSKA 1948 Sofia 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDDWDW

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 2–1–3 CSKA 1948 Sofia (6 last)

CSKA 1948 Sofia3-2Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-1CSKA 1948 Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia2-1CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia1-4Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia0-0CSKA 1948 Sofia
CSKA 1948 Sofia2-1Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 1494 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1569

	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	Draw	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Our model	24%	29%	47%
Market	25%	27%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA 1948 Sofia (rating 1494 vs 1569).
H2H favours CSKA 1948 Sofia: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	CSKA 1948 Sofia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.70

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:40 +1’	3.70	3.40	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 2–1–3 CSKA 1948 Sofia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	3-2 HT 2-2	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
19/10/25 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	0-1 HT 0-0	CSKA 1948 Sofia
14/05/25 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	2-1 HT 0-1	CSKA 1948 Sofia
09/02/25 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	1-4 HT 0-3	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia
18/08/24 Bulgaria First League	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	0-0 HT 0-0	CSKA 1948 Sofia
15/04/24 Bulgaria First League	CSKA 1948 Sofia	2-1 HT 1-1	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
2	CSKA 1948 Sofia	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	CSKA Sofia	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Spartak Varna	2	1	1	0	5	2	4
6	Arda Kardzhali	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
7	Botev Plovdiv	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
8	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
10	Slavia Sofia	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
11	Botev Vratsa	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
12	Cherno More Varna	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
13	Septemvri Sofia	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
14	Dunav Ruse	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	CSKA 1948 Sofia
KF Drita	2-1 W	4-1 W
Spartak Varna	0-3 L	2-2 D
Botev Vratsa	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CSKA 1948 Sofia (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia

WDDDWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
25/07	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-2	5	3	L
20/07	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
26/06	KF Drita Europe Friendlies	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
22/05	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
18/05	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-0	10	1	W
14/05	Beroe Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-1	8	7	D
09/05	Montana Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	3	3	D
05/05	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	7	7	D
01/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	2-0	3-0	3	4	W

CSKA 1948 Sofia

WWDLWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
28/07	FC Spartak Trnava UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	5	12	D
25/07	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
22/07	FC Spartak Trnava UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
17/07	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	0-2	2-2	5	3	D
07/07	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
04/07	NK Varazdin Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
01/07	NK Maribor Europe Friendlies	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
29/06	Partizan Belgrade Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
21/06	KF Drita Europe Friendlies	2-1	4-1	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA 1948 Sofia win (47%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 25%, draw 28%, CSKA 1948 Sofia 47%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia 0.99 · CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.47), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Sofia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.