Football · Bulgaria First League · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Team pages: Cherno More Varna · Ludogorets Razgrad
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.96Total
Cherno More Varna0.76
Ludogorets Razgrad1.2
1X2
Cherno More Varna
Draw
Ludogorets Razgrad
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cherno More Varna
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Ludogorets Razgrad
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cherno More Varna
1–4–1
Ludogorets Razgrad
(6 last)
- Ludogorets Razgrad0-0Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna0-0Ludogorets Razgrad
- Cherno More Varna2-0Ludogorets Razgrad
- Ludogorets Razgrad2-0Cherno More Varna
- Cherno More Varna1-1Ludogorets Razgrad
- Ludogorets Razgrad0-0Cherno More Varna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cherno More Varna 1491 · Ludogorets Razgrad 1559
| Cherno More Varna | Draw | Ludogorets Razgrad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 33% | 45% |
| Market | 24% | 28% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ludogorets Razgrad (rating 1491 vs 1559).
- Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cherno More Varna | Ludogorets Razgrad | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.2 | 1.7 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.1 | 4.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cherno More Varna 1–4–1 Ludogorets Razgrad
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/26 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 02/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 13/05/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 27/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Cherno More Varna |
| 22/02/25 Bulgaria First League | Cherno More Varna | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ludogorets Razgrad |
| 01/09/24 Bulgaria First League | Ludogorets Razgrad | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cherno More Varna |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Spartak Varna | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 10 | Slavia Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cherno More Varna | Ludogorets Razgrad |
|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cherno More Varna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 11/07 | Dunav Ruse Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 03/07 | Spartak Pleven Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 24/06 | Yantra Gabrovo Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Ludogorets Razgrad
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Hapoel Tel Aviv UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 27/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 23/07 | Hapoel Tel Aviv UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 18/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/07 | Teuta Durres Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/07 | Septemvri Sofia Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | FC Botosani Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 26/06 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List |
5-2 | 7-4 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ludogorets Razgrad win (46%). Probabilities: Cherno More Varna 23%, draw 30%, Ludogorets Razgrad 46%.
How many goals are expected in Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad?
The model expects 1.96 goals (Cherno More Varna 0.76 · Ludogorets Razgrad 1.2), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Cherno More Varna vs Ludogorets Razgrad?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.