Football · Bulgaria First League · 08/08, 17:00
Prediction: Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali
Team pages: Dunav Ruse · Arda Kardzhali
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.18Total
Dunav Ruse1.01
Arda Kardzhali1.17
1X2
Dunav Ruse
Draw
Arda Kardzhali
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dunav Ruse
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Arda Kardzhali
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dunav Ruse
2–1–1
Arda Kardzhali
(4 last)
- Dunav Ruse1-2Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali0-2Dunav Ruse
- Dunav Ruse0-0Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali0-2Dunav Ruse
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dunav Ruse 1455 · Arda Kardzhali 1506
| Dunav Ruse | Draw | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 32% | 38% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arda Kardzhali (rating 1455 vs 1506).
- H2H favours Dunav Ruse: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dunav Ruse | Arda Kardzhali | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.9 | 2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunav Ruse 2–1–1 Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/11/22 Bulgaria Cup | Dunav Ruse | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 21/06/20 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Dunav Ruse |
| 06/06/20 Bulgaria First League | Dunav Ruse | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 06/10/19 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Dunav Ruse |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | CSKA Sofia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Spartak Varna | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 7 | Botev Plovdiv | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 8 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 10 | Slavia Sofia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Botev Vratsa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | Cherno More Varna | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dunav Ruse
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 17/07 | Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/07 | Cherno More Varna Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 01/07 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/06 | Spartak Varna Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 20/06 | Lokomotiv Gorna Oryahovitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Minyor Pernik Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria Second League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/05 | FK Fratria Bulgaria Second League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Sevlievo Bulgaria Second League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/07 | Botev Vratsa Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 07/07 | Beitar Jerusalem Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 04/07 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 01/07 | Rilski Sportist Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/06 | Botev Plovdiv Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Arda Kardzhali win (39%). Probabilities: Dunav Ruse 31%, draw 30%, Arda Kardzhali 39%.
How many goals are expected in Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model expects 2.18 goals (Dunav Ruse 1.01 · Arda Kardzhali 1.17), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Dunav Ruse vs Arda Kardzhali?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.