Football · Bulgaria First League · 08/08, 17:00

Prediction: Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

Team pages: Septemvri Sofia · CSKA Sofia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Septemvri Sofia0.68

CSKA Sofia1.67

1X2

14% 25% 61%

Septemvri Sofia Draw CSKA Sofia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Septemvri Sofia 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWLDLL

CSKA Sofia 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDDWD

Head-to-head

Septemvri Sofia 2–4 CSKA Sofia (6 last)

Septemvri Sofia2-0CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia4-0Septemvri Sofia
CSKA Sofia3-1Septemvri Sofia
Septemvri Sofia0-1CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia0-1Septemvri Sofia
CSKA Sofia1-0Septemvri Sofia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Septemvri Sofia 1500 · CSKA Sofia 1567

	Septemvri Sofia	Draw	CSKA Sofia
Our model	14%	26%	60%
Market	15%	24%	61%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CSKA Sofia (rating 1500 vs 1567).
H2H favours CSKA Sofia: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Septemvri Sofia	CSKA Sofia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	4.1 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

16.25

X3.80

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:35 +6’	6.25	3.80	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Septemvri Sofia 2–0–4 CSKA Sofia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	2-0 HT 0-0	CSKA Sofia
11/10/25 Club Friendly List	CSKA Sofia	4-0 HT 4-0	Septemvri Sofia
13/09/25 Bulgaria First League	CSKA Sofia	3-1 HT 1-0	Septemvri Sofia
29/03/25 Bulgaria First League	Septemvri Sofia	0-1 HT 0-0	CSKA Sofia
05/10/24 Bulgaria First League	CSKA Sofia	0-1 HT 0-1	Septemvri Sofia
10/02/24 Club Friendly List	CSKA Sofia	1-0 HT 0-0	Septemvri Sofia

Standings · Bulgaria First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Levski Sofia	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
2	CSKA 1948 Sofia	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
3	Ludogorets Razgrad	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
4	CSKA Sofia	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Spartak Varna	2	1	1	0	5	2	4
6	Arda Kardzhali	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
7	Botev Plovdiv	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
8	Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
10	Slavia Sofia	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
11	Botev Vratsa	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
12	Cherno More Varna	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
13	Septemvri Sofia	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
14	Dunav Ruse	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Septemvri Sofia

DWWDWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Levski Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-1	0-3	0	4	L
26/07	Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
18/07	Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
10/07	Ludogorets Razgrad Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
27/06	Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
28/05	Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria First League Play-Offs	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
22/05	PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-1	2	15	D
18/05	Beroe Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/05	Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League	1-0	1-0	5	8	W
10/05	Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League	0-0	1-1	4	4	D

CSKA Sofia

WLWWWWDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	FK Qarabag UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	2	9	D
27/07	Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League	1-1	3-2	17	5	W
23/07	FK Qarabag UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
20/07	Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
16/07	Derry City UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
09/07	Derry City UEFA Europa League Qualifying	2-1	3-2	6	1	W
03/07	Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
28/06	Odra Opole Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-2	13	0	W
24/06	Polissya Zhytomyr Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-4	8	2	L
20/06	NK Brinje Grosuplje Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	9	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CSKA Sofia win (61%). Probabilities: Septemvri Sofia 14%, draw 25%, CSKA Sofia 61%.

How many goals are expected in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Septemvri Sofia 0.68 · CSKA Sofia 1.67), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.