Football · Bulgaria First League · 01/08, 18:00
Prediction: Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Levski Sofia2.35
Septemvri Sofia0.6
1X2
Levski Sofia
Draw
Septemvri Sofia
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Levski Sofia
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Septemvri Sofia
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Levski Sofia
5–1
Septemvri Sofia
(6 last)
- Levski Sofia7-0Septemvri Sofia
- Septemvri Sofia1-2Levski Sofia
- Septemvri Sofia0-1Levski Sofia
- Levski Sofia2-3Septemvri Sofia
- Levski Sofia5-0Septemvri Sofia
- Levski Sofia2-0Septemvri Sofia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Levski Sofia 1609 · Septemvri Sofia 1498
| Levski Sofia | Draw | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| Market | 76% | 17% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Levski Sofia (rating 1609 vs 1498).
- H2H favours Levski Sofia: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Levski Sofia | Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.1 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.9 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 5.6 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Levski Sofia 5–0–1 Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 7-0 HT 1-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 27/07/25 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Levski Sofia |
| 21/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Septemvri Sofia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Levski Sofia |
| 09/11/24 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 29/06/24 Europe Friendlies | Levski Sofia | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
| 04/05/23 Bulgaria First League | Levski Sofia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Septemvri Sofia |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Arda Kardzhali | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Cherno More Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | Botev Vratsa | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Slavia Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Spartak Varna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Septemvri Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Levski Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | CS U Craiova UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 17/07 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Borac Banja Luka UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/07 | Borac Banja Luka UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 30/06 | FK Radnik Surdulica Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Botev Vratsa Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 23/06 | Etar 1924 Veliko Tarnovo Club Friendly List |
5-0 | 6-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/06 | Akademik Svishtov Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/05 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
Septemvri Sofia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Arda Kardzhali Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 10/07 | Ludogorets Razgrad Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | Marek Dupnitsa Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/05 | Yantra Gabrovo Bulgaria First League Play-Offs |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 15 | D |
| 18/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/05 | Spartak Varna Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 10/05 | Botev Vratsa Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 01/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Levski Sofia win (76%). Probabilities: Levski Sofia 76%, draw 17%, Septemvri Sofia 7%.
How many goals are expected in Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Levski Sofia 2.35 · Septemvri Sofia 0.6), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Levski Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.