Football · Bulgaria First League · 29/08, 17:00
Prediction: Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa
Team pages: Arda Kardzhali · Botev Vratsa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.39Total
Arda Kardzhali1.77
Botev Vratsa0.62
1X2
Arda Kardzhali
Draw
Botev Vratsa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Arda Kardzhali
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Botev Vratsa
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Arda Kardzhali
2–4
Botev Vratsa
(6 last)
- Botev Vratsa1-0Arda Kardzhali
- Botev Vratsa1-0Arda Kardzhali
- Botev Vratsa2-3Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali0-2Botev Vratsa
- Botev Vratsa3-1Arda Kardzhali
- Arda Kardzhali2-0Botev Vratsa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Arda Kardzhali 1526 · Botev Vratsa 1503
| Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Botev Vratsa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 24% | 11% |
| Market | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Botev Vratsa: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Arda Kardzhali | Botev Vratsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.3 | 2.2 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Arda Kardzhali 2–0–4 Botev Vratsa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07/26 Europe Friendlies | Botev Vratsa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 07/03/26 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 11/02/26 Bulgaria Cup | Botev Vratsa | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 28/09/25 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Botev Vratsa |
| 19/04/25 Bulgaria First League | Botev Vratsa | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Arda Kardzhali |
| 08/11/24 Bulgaria First League | Arda Kardzhali | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Botev Vratsa |
Standings · Bulgaria First League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets Razgrad | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 2 | Levski Sofia | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 13 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| 14 | Botev Vratsa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Arda Kardzhali | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| CSKA 1948 Sofia | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Slavia Sofia | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Septemvri Sofia | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Cherno More Varna | 3-2 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Arda Kardzhali (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Arda Kardzhali
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Dunav Ruse Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 31/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Botev Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 03/05 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
Botev Vratsa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | CSKA Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/08 | Slavia Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Ludogorets Razgrad Bulgaria First League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | CSKA 1948 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 19/07 | Cherno More Varna Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 22/05 | Beroe Bulgaria First League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 18/05 | PFC Dobrudzha Dobrich Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Montana Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Septemvri Sofia Bulgaria First League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | Lokomotiv 1929 Sofia Bulgaria First League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Arda Kardzhali win (65%). Probabilities: Arda Kardzhali 65%, draw 23%, Botev Vratsa 12%.
How many goals are expected in Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa?
The model expects 2.39 goals (Arda Kardzhali 1.77 · Botev Vratsa 0.62), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.